US elections and tariff implications on transport stocks

Investing.com — In a note published Tuesday, Bank of America analysts discussed how the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election could affect the transport sector, particularly in the context of tariff policies on goods traded with China and other nations.

According to BofA’s analysis, a Trump victory could lead to significant short-term and long-term impacts on trade volumes and transport stocks due to his aggressive tariff proposals. Trump’s proposed tariffs—60% on Chinese imports and 10% on all other imports—would likely drive a “short-term surge in demand for imports” as companies rush to avoid higher costs.

This anticipated surge could momentarily benefit trade volumes and elevate freight rates across sectors like ocean and air transport.

However, these tariffs would likely result in reduced global trade in the long run, posing a negative impact on European transport stocks that rely heavily on global trade volumes.

At the same time, US asset-based carriers could see those medium-term challenges of lower volumes “turn to a tailwind longer term as raw material production and finished goods are moved over the network.”

In contrast, a victory for Kamala Harris would probably see a continuation of the current trade policies. BofA suggests that “a Harris win would have limited impact on trade volumes and freight rates” due to a more measured approach that involves targeted tariffs and restrictions on sensitive technologies, particularly against China.

“Meanwhile, tariffs already in place would likely not be removed. As such, we think a Harris win would have limited impact on trade volumes and freight rates,” analysts led by Muneeba Kayani added.

BofA’s report also highlights the vulnerability of certain segments within the transport industry. European container liners, for instance, would be “most impacted both in the short (positively) and long term (negatively)” in the event of a Trump win, benefiting initially from increased import volumes but facing long-term headwinds as global trade volumes decrease.

Forwarders, on the other hand, may see less immediate benefit but could compensate in the long run by capitalizing on the growing complexity in supply chains, creating opportunities for added-value services.

Additionally, insights from 2018 provide a historical lens, showing how previous tariff introductions led to a spike in ocean freight rates without significantly impacting volume into major US ports. This suggests that, while freight rates might rise, the potential for volume reduction may be mitigated by adaptive supply chains.

On the Mexico front, BofA said its US economists believe that tariffs on Mexican imports are unlikely but acknowledge the possibility of renegotiation under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026, which could impact trade dynamics with Mexico.

“If Trump were elected, the risk would be that the US might ask for better trade terms or higher domestic content requirements,” analysts noted.

Citing their talks with industry experts, analysts said the US-China trade war has driven diversification of production from China to countries in Asia as well as Mexico, leading to more complex supply chains.