Upturn in German services activity loses momentum in July, PMI shows
2024.08.05 05:01
By Maria Martinez
BERLIN (Reuters) – Growth in Germany’s services sector slowed for the second consecutive month in July, a survey showed on Monday, in a further sign that Europe’s biggest economy is losing steam.
The HCOB final services Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 52.5 in July from 53.1 in June, although it was slightly above a preliminary flash estimate of 52.0 and above the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction for the fifth straight month.
Growth could keep slowing down in the next few months, warned Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
“If the service sector stalls, the whole economy could slip into a recession because manufacturing continues to shrink sharply,” de la Rubia said. “Sadly, a recession is not just a distant possibility anymore.”
A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product. The German economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising recession fears.
The loss of momentum in the services sector contributed to the first decrease in employment so far this year, the survey showed.
Nevertheless, business expectations towards growth prospects in the coming year improved slightly, albeit only partially reversing the previous month’s notable decrease.
On the inflation front, average prices charged by services firms registered the slowest rate of increase since April 2021, though one that was still elevated compared to pre-pandemic standards, according to the survey.
The composite PMI index, which comprises services and manufacturing, fell to 49.1 in July from 50.4 in June, slightly above a preliminary reading of 48.7 but still slipping into contraction territory.
