UPDATE: 3 Analysts Discuss Tesla’s Q1 Delivery Figures
2022.04.04 14:42
UPDATE: 3 Analysts Discuss Tesla’s (TSLA) Q1 Delivery Figures
(Updated – April 4, 2022 6:51 AM EDT)
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Q1 electric vehicle deliveries of 310,048, up 68% from the year-ago period and slightly above the previous quarter. The number also beat Wall Street consensus estimates of 308,836, as per Refinitiv.
On the other hand, the production of electric vehicles (EVs) was down compared to the previous quarter due to supply chain issues and a halt at the company’s plant in China.
The number of produced EVs from January to March was 305,407, slightly down from 305,840 in the earlier quarter.
“This was an *exceptionally* difficult quarter due to supply chain interruptions & China zero Covid policy,” said Tesla CEO Elon Musk in a tweet. “Outstanding work by Tesla team & key suppliers saved the day.”
The report showed that Tesla has stayed resilient amid global supply chain issues and the negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic, but also thanks to its new Shanghai plant. Still, the carmaker has been forced to suspend production at the Shanghai factory due to a surge in Covid-19 cases in China.
The company reported 295,324 sales of its Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport utility cars, in addition to 14,724 deliveries of Model S luxury sedans and Model X premium SUVs.
Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch reflected positively on the delivery report. The analyst is bullish on Tesla shares.
Given its Shanghai facility under COVID-19 lockdown last week, costing the company as much as 2K vehicles per day, we expect most investors will give TSLA a pass on deliveries coming in a bit light for the quarter. We note deliveries continue to outpace production pointing to very strong demand, especially when considering the significant price increases TSLA has taken. We expect investors to be focused on ramp progress in Austin and Berlin, notably on 4680 battery yields, along with stability of gross margins and any updates on recurring revenue ramp for insurance and FSD when TSLA reports later this month, Rusch said in a client note.
On the other hand, JPMorgan ) analyst Ryan Brinkman raised the price target on Tesla to $335.00 per share from $325.00 to reflect raised Q1 EPS estimates. Brinkman raised the Q1 EPS forecast to $2.10, up from $1.94 but lower than the consensus of $2.25.
The new price target implies a downside of nearly 70%.
Brinkman expects Tesla to deliver 1.263 million (up from the prior forecast of 1.246) EV units in 2022, which is much lower than Teslas own expectations of 1.446 million. The Visible Alpha consensus stands at 1.45 million.
We expect Tesla to be largely successful in passing along higher prices near-term, given its waitlist, with positive implications for revenue, neutral implications for profit dollars, and negative implications for profit margin, although the longer-term impact is less clear, Brinkman said.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney argues that Tesla executed well amidst ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns.
We continue to believe the Austin and Berlin ramps will be a key factor to monitor for production, deliveries, and auto gross margins in 2022, especially given the introduction of new product/manufacturing technologies and ongoing supply-chain related challenges.
Delaney also lowered the 2022 deliveries estimate to 1.50 mn from 1.51 mn to reflect the Q1 results and additional shutdown days in Shanghai in Q2.
Tesla stock price is up 1.2% in pre-open Monday.
By Senad Karaahmetovic
