Ukraine and its allies have engaged in a tough battle with Russia
2022.12.20 07:03
Ukraine and its allies have engaged in a tough battle with Russia
Budrigannews.com – Military experts claim that even if Russia does win the nearly five-month battle for the small city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, it will be a pyrrhic victory because it has lasted so long and caused so much death and destruction.
Since the fighting started, Bakhmut and the surrounding area have seen destroyed apartment buildings, soldiers with serious injuries, mud-filled trenches, and civilians hiding in cellars under constant bombardment.
Overseeing the city, with a pre-war populace of 70-80,000 that has contracted to near 10,000, could give Russia a venturing stone to progress on two greater urban communities – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Additionally, Ukraine would lose a useful intersection of the rail supply line and the road.
However, a significant portion of Bakhmut has been destroyed by intense fighting since August 1 and Russian shelling since May, while Ukrainian forces to the west have had ample time to construct defensive lines to use as a point of retreat.
“It would have been significant if Bakhmut had been captured when they started their attack in August. However, momentum is everything,” Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka stated.
He stated that Ukraine’s subsequent fortification of the surrounding area had diminished Bakhmut’s strategic value, making it difficult for Russia to turn the city’s capture into a broader breakthrough.
Despite this, the conflict has taken on an extraordinary amount of significance on both sides due to the fact that it is the primary location of combat as winter sets in, significant resources have been mobilized, and this is the first battle in months that Russia appears to have a chance of winning.
Some experts from Russia, Ukraine, and the West compare the conflict, which has been dubbed a “meat grinder” by commanders on both sides, to World War I, when Germany and Britain lost a lot of territory to trench warfare for little gain elsewhere.
This week, Russian nationalist and former Federal Security Service officer Igor Girkin said that his own side’s strategy in Bakhmut was “idiotic.” Girkin helped start the original Donbas war in 2014 and is under sanctions from the United States.
“What will occur straightaway (after the likely Russian catch of Bakhmut)?” In a video, Girkin mused, adding that the Ukrainians would simply use a second defensive line as a fallback while continuing to construct additional defensive lines behind that line.
Girkin stated, “It’s chewing through the enemy’s defenses according to the World War One model,” arguing that Moscow required a new battlefield strategy and a different deployment of its forces.
According to U.S.-based CNA think-tank expert Michael Kofman, Moscow appeared committed to the battle due to the resources it had already spent rather than “sound strategy.”
Kofman stated, “The fighting for Bakhmut is not irrational, but strategically unsound (for Russia) given weak offensive potential and no prospect of breakthrough even if the city is captured.”
The total number of fatalities in Ukraine is not made public by either side.
However, Kyiv asserts that Russia has been suffering a significant loss and that many of the deceased were inmates recruited by Moscow’s Wagner private mercenary company.
Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is recognized in the West, has confirmed that his men are fighting there.
He offered convicts a choice: fight and get pardoned in six months, or join the rebellion and face execution.
Mediazona, a independent Russian news outlet, reported in November that publicly available data from Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service showed that the total number of people in prison fell by over 23,000 in September and October, the largest decline of its kind in more than a decade.
That recommended convicts had taken up Prigozhin’s proposition. Reuters couldn’t autonomously check the information.
Wagner’s mission in fighting for Bakhmut was to “kill as many enemy soldiers as possible, and bleed the Ukrainian army dry,” according to comments made by Prigozhin on December 12.
The footage of battlefields shows the frontline edging back and forth and intense fighting for relatively small areas.
In its own battlefield updates, Russia has said that Ukraine has lost a lot of men and equipment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Bakhmut was the “most smoking spot” on a 1,300-km (800-mile)frontline.
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On Tuesday, his office said that Zelenskiy had gone to the city to meet with representatives of the military and give awards to soldiers.
Bakhmut, which Russia refers to as Artyomovsk due to its Soviet-era name, has long held political significance for the country.
Taking Bakhmut, which is located on the frontline that divides the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine, would bring Russia one step closer to assuming full control of the Donbas, where Russian proxies have controlled parts since 2014.
In a humiliating retreat, Russian troops withdrew from Ukraine’s north in April. In public, Moscow reframed the “liberation” of the largely Russian-speaking Donbas, of which the Donetsk region is roughly half, as the primary goal of the war.
The Polish military analyst Muzyka stated that Bakhmut had evolved into a war of attrition.
He stated, “In terms of manpower and equipment, the Ukrainians are just wearing down the Russians.” They are expanding the expenses for the Russians.”
There is “a realistic possibility that Bakhmut’s capture has become primarily a symbolic, political objective” for Moscow, according to British military intelligence.
General Sergei Surovikin, who has been overall commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine since October 8 and could demonstrate that he was correct to redeploy his forces elsewhere after withdrawing from the southern city of Kherson, would benefit morale by winning there.
If Prigozhin is able to take some credit for this victory, it could also increase his political influence in Moscow.
Experts assert that the decision to detain Bakhmut has a significant bearing on Ukraine’s ability to maintain Western support for its war effort.
In light of Ukraine’s string of victories on the battlefield, even a minor defeat runs the risk of creating the impression of a deadlock. This could make Western nations less willing to support Kyiv given their own mounting war-related economic woes.
Kofman stated, “At this stage, Ukraine is the victim of its own recent success and suffers from increased expectations of sustained momentum.”
