UK inflation expectations rise in August -Citi/YouGov

LONDON (Reuters) -The British public’s expectations for inflation over the medium to long term, which are closely watched by the Bank of England, rose in August, a survey published on Friday showed.

Inflation expectations in five to 10 years’ time marginally rose to 3.3% from 3.2% in July, the survey by U.S. bank Citi and polling firm YouGov showed.

Public expectations for inflation in 12 months’ time increased to 4.4% from 4.3%.

The BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates for the 15th time in a row on Sept. 21 as it grapples with the highest rate of inflation among the world’s big rich economies.

Expectations for Bank of England policy tightening are now their lowest since June, following surveys this week showing a softening outlook for inflation and Governor Andrew Bailey’s comment that a peak in rates was now “much nearer”.

Rate futures at 1400 GMT showed a 69% chance of a quarter-point rate rise to 5.5% on Sept. 22 after the BoE’s next meeting, down from more than 80% early this week. The chances of a further rate rise to 5.75% stood at 46% by December and peak at 49% by February 2024, with investors expecting cuts in rates to begin in around a year’s time.

However, analysts believe two more hikes might be overkill and the BoE is more likely to deliver just one more. Investors are starting to prepare for this eventuality too.

Citi said it expects the data to continue to ease in the months ahead as headline inflation falls.

“However, these data re-affirm that upside risks around energy in particular over the coming winter could continue to pose challenges,” Citi economist Benjamin Nabarro wrote in a note to clients.

The data “remains consistent with the idea that weak growth alongside restrictive rates are now having the desired effect, with a growing proportion now expecting much lower long-term inflation, as well as some still expecting much higher.”

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