UK GDP to rebound slightly in October – Deutsche Bank
2024.12.10 07:49
Investing.com – The final estimate of UK growth this year is due on Friday, and Deutsche Bank (ETR:) looks for a limited rebound to start the final quarter of the year after a weak September.
The German bank expects to rise 0.1% on the month in October, bouncing after a drop of 0.1% in September.
“Services activity we think will remain tempered by a pull back in retail spending. Manufacturing output will likely remain sluggish given the ongoing global slowdown. Construction activity will likely grow — but we don’t expect a sizable pickup in activity. Indeed, hiring and investment decisions likely came to a standstill as uncertainty over the Autumn Budget peaked,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said, in a note dated Dec 9.
Looking ahead, the bank sees downside risks to its current 0.3% projection for the final quarter of 2024.
“Our latest nowcast models point to a tenth to two-tenths downside, based on recent survey and hard data, which also raise some marginal downside risk to our 0.9% annual growth projection for 2024. Big picture, we expect GDP growth to rise to 1.3% next year, with risks broadly balanced.”
The UK’s gross domestic product increased by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the previous quarter. This was slower than the 0.5% growth in the second quarter.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the UK will grow by 1.1% in 2024, which is slower than previous periods but would put the UK in the middle of the pack of the world’s leading nations.
