Economic news

UK GDP contracts in October, raising Q4-24 recession concerns – Deutsche Bank Research

2024.12.13 13:17

UK GDP contracts in October, raising Q4-24 recession concerns - Deutsche Bank Research

UK’s economic performance has raised concerns as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a contraction in the October gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.1% month-over-month, according to a report by Deutsche Bank (ETR:) Research.

Deutsche Bank’s nowcast models indicate a potential negative tail risk emerging for Q4-24 quarterly GDP growth (-0.1% q-o-q to 0.1% q-o-q). The report also suggests that the risk of a quarterly contraction is no longer negligible.

“To be sure, we warned of downside risks in our preview, with our nowcast models pointing “to a larger negative tail risk,” the report stated.

This marks the fourth GDP disappointment in five months, signaling potential trouble for the economy’s growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Deutsche expects that the GDP slowdown have significant impact on policies. A lower GDP will hit cash receipts, raising the risk of a funding shortfall, based on the OBR’s current projections.

For monetary policy makers, the slowdown in growth may give the committee some breathing room in the midst of firming price pressures owing to the increase and pass-through of the employer National Insurance Contributions hike.

Looking ahead, October labour data is expected to set the tone for Q4-24 growth. Deutsche Banks anticipates a slowdown in pay momentum, while expecting overall employment and unemployment rates broadly unchanged.

Additionally, it excepts a 3% drop in job vacancies, which will increase the risks of contraction in the quarter.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 98,290.33 0.57%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,452.98 1.38%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 0.999283 0.08%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.27 2.04%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 700.07 0.73%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 197.61 0.55%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.328444 1.81%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.09%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,447.79 1.05%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.908046 3.27%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.255809 0.89%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 40.29 2.17%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 24.44 0.32%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 5.95 2.91%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 4,105.57 0.97%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000023 2.10%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 4.53 1.08%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 98,090.28 0.50%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.313191 3.06%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.380843 5.91%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 7.44 1.32%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 3,452.34 1.44%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 27.80 6.59%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 457.48 3.67%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.55 0.63%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 13.78 5.09%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 107.62 1.66%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 5.66 16.44%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000018 4.78%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,647.57 0.90%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 5.42 2.92%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 0.999267 0.05%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 369.00 2.00%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.13%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 11.17 0.28%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 9.55 2.09%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.157803 4.90%
polygon-ecosystem-token
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.510205 3.59%
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.051454 3.76%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 1.23 0.80%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 27.11 3.88%
render-token
Render (RENDER) $ 7.50 4.98%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 506.18 1.38%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 24.94 0.51%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 193.46 1.09%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 3.74 1.40%
fetch-ai
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 1.34 4.90%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.11%
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.793652 3.55%
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 5.26 4.76%