UBS favors GBP, AUD, CHF; neutral on JPY, bearish on CNY
2024.12.12 08:30
UBS expressed a positive outlook on the British pound (GBP), Australian dollar (AUD), and Swiss franc (CHF) within the G10 currency group. The financial services firm cited high interest rates and expectations of gradual monetary easing in the UK and Australia as reasons for its favorable view on GBP and AUD.
UBS anticipates the and exchange rates to climb to 1.35 and 0.68, respectively. UBS’s stance on the Swiss franc is also optimistic due to the limited scope for the Swiss National Bank to reduce rates further.
The firm predicts that interest rate differentials with other G10 currencies will narrow by 2025, likely resulting in increased inflows into the CHF and a decline in the exchange rate to 0.84.
The Japanese yen (JPY) maintains a neutral position from UBS’s perspective. Although a short-term increase in the towards 155 is deemed possible, particularly if US bond yields ascend, UBS forecasts a medium-term decrease to 145 by the end of 2025.
This expectation is based on the current USD/JPY level exceeding what yield differentials suggest, a predicted contraction in the US-Japan yield differential, and political factors. Notably, President-elect Trump’s past criticism of a weak yen and the lack of Japanese policymakers’ desire for further yen depreciation could lead to a mutually beneficial stronger yen.
Conversely, UBS holds a less favorable view on the Chinese yuan (CNY), anticipating a rise in the exchange rate to 7.50 by the end of 2025.
The forecasted increase is attributed to potential escalations in US-China trade tensions and the expected appointment of Robert Lighthizer as the US Trade Representative, who is known for his hawkish stance on trade with China. Despite the People’s Bank of China’s efforts to stabilize the yuan by managing its daily fixing rate, UBS warns of significant risks for further yuan depreciation.
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