U.S. Sovereign Rating Cut by Fitch: Minimal Impact Expected, Says Treasury

A senior U.S. Treasury official has downplayed the impact of Fitch Ratings’ recent downgrade of the U.S.’s AAA sovereign rating, citing “limited or no impact on yields or prices.” Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Josh Frost expressed this view during a briefing on the government’s latest plans for debt issuance, including the unveiling of the first increase to a quarterly auction of notes and bonds in over two and a half years. The reassurance comes as Treasuries experienced a slide in trading following strong U.S. jobs data and the announcement of increased debt issuance.

Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. credit grade to AA+ was announced late Tuesday, following a warning two months prior that the rating was at risk due to lawmakers’ battle over raising the nation’s debt limit. Despite the downgrade, Frost has dismissed the risk of forced selling from buyers of Treasuries, referencing the lack of such moves in 2011 when S&P Global Ratings similarly downgraded U.S. debt. He emphasized that Treasury securities remain the world’s leading safe and liquid asset.

The view of limited consequences from the downgrade was not exclusive to the Treasury. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:).’s Jan Hatzius also wrote that there would be no meaningful holders of Treasury securities forced to sell due to the downgrade. This perspective is rooted in the unique importance of Treasury securities, with most investment mandates and regulatory regimes referring specifically to them, rather than AAA-rated government debt in general.

The downgrade by Fitch, while noted, seems not to have shaken confidence in U.S. government debt. Both the Treasury and leading financial institutions like Goldman Sachs continue to regard Treasury securities as fundamental and resilient, even as the nation faces economic and political challenges. The focus is now likely to shift to the government’s plans for debt issuance and how it will navigate a changing economic landscape.

This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative