U.S. new vehicle sales forecast to rise 4% despite October strikes

Despite factory closures due to strikes in October, analysts from Cox Automotive project a roughly 4% increase in U.S new vehicle sales compared to the same month last year. This estimate, however, remains below the pre-pandemic annual sales of over 17 million cars. In 2022, the number of cars sold fell to below 14 million. If current trends hold, around 15.8 million cars are expected to be sold this year.

Analysts cautioned that high interest rates, concerns over a potential recession, and an ongoing United Auto Workers (UAW) strike could deter potential buyers. Despite these challenges, rising demand from individuals and businesses and growing inventory levels continue to fuel a recovery in sales.

Ford (NYSE:) and the UAW have reached a tentative agreement to end part of the strike. However, Toyota (NYSE:NYSE:) and Honda (NYSE:NYSE:) continue to grapple with low supply levels, measured in days’ supply. Chevrolet and Cadillac also face tight supplies due to the strike.

On the other hand, Ford has a 90-day supply and Stellantis (NYSE:NYSE:) brands boast more than 100 days’ supply. Lincoln also has high inventory levels. The industry’s average days’ supply stood at 62 in mid-October, up from 48 days in the previous year, indicating a growing inventory across the industry.

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