U.S. business optimism about China outlook falls to record low – survey

By Casey Hall

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Geopolitics and a slowing economy are fuelling pessimism among U.S. businesses operating in China, with the proportion of firms optimistic about their five-year outlook in the country falling to a record low, a survey released on Tuesday said.

Even after the ending of COVID curbs, which weighed heavily on both revenues and sentiment in 2022, the percentage of surveyed U.S. firms optimistic about the five-year China business outlook fell to 52%, according to the annual survey published by American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai.

This was the lowest level of optimism reported since the AmCham Shanghai Annual China Business Report was first introduced in 1999.

“Frankly, if there was one thing that surprised me about the survey this year it was that number,” said AmCham Shanghai Chairman, Sean Stein. “By the time we did this year’s survey a lot of the illusions had fallen away that we would see a sustained rebound in economic growth (post-COVID).”

Geopolitics remained a major concern for many firms, with U.S.-China tensions cited as a top business challenge by 60% of the survey’s 325 respondents, equal to the number who pointed to China’s economic slowdown as a top challenge.

Concern over the transparency of China’s regulatory environment also grew, with one third reporting that policies and regulations towards foreign companies had worsened in the past year, though many respondents pointed to U.S. government policy rather than China’s when asked about pressure to decouple.

Companies have been at the centre of deteriorating relations between the two countries for several years. China has criticised U.S. efforts to block China’s access to advanced technology and U.S. firms have expressed concern about fines, raids and other actions that make doing business in China risky.

Last month, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said during a visit to China that U.S. companies have complained to her that China has become “uninvestible”.

Geopolitical tensions were also cited as the top risk to China’s future economic growth in the AmCham report, with improved U.S.-China relations the number one factor respondents said would improve their industry’s prospects in China.

AmCham’s Stein said that the survey had been conducted prior to Raimondo’s visit and, since then, he believed companies had begun to reconsider whether they had been “too pessimistic that there wasn’t any way to get out of a constant downward slide (in U.S.-China relations)”.

A larger percentage of firms, 40%, up from 34% last year, are currently redirecting or looking to redirect investment that had been earmarked for China, mainly to Southeast Asia.

This echoed a report published by Rhodium Group last week, which said that India, Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia were receiving the vast majority of investment U.S. and European firms were shifting away from China.