Two possible tariff scenarios for 2025: Wells Fargo

Analysts at Wells Fargo in a note dated Tuesday, have analyzed the potential impacts of tariffs in the context of the 2024 presidential campaign, with particular focus on two distinct scenarios for 2025. As foreign trade policy emerges as a crucial issue amid heightened geopolitical tensions, the implications for the U.S. economy and investment landscape are significant.

Scenario 1: Limited tariffs

Tariffs would be selectively imposed, targeting specific countries or industries without escalating into a broader trade war. As per Wells Fargo, such an approach would provide some flexibility in the supply chain.

The move from China to countries like Vietnam and Mexico would likely result in businesses shifting their sourcing locations to circumvent tariffs. As a result, tariffs would have a less immediate impact, making supply chains more flexible and diverse.

Under a Democratic-led administration or a Trump administration exercising restraint with tariffs, Wells Fargo considers this scenario more likely.

Scenario 2: Widespread and aggressive tariffs

A second alternative involves imposing high and extensive tariffs, such as the proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on all other goods entering the country.

The potential economic disruption posed by this case is severe, according to Wells Fargo. As a result of such tariffs, companies would have difficulty adapting quickly, resulting in inflation and pressure on profits.

A slowdown in global trade and economic activity could adversely affect consumer goods and industries that rely heavily on global supply chains.

Economic implications

Wells Fargo expects that tariffs, regardless of their scope, would initially contribute to inflation by restricting low-cost imports and boosting prices of domestic alternatives. This inflationary pressure could lead to higher interest rates and an economic slowdown, particularly affecting credit-sensitive sectors like housing.

The broader economic impact would depend on the extent to which companies and consumers can adjust to the new trade environment.

In light of these potential scenarios, Wells Fargo recommends a cautious investment approach. The brokerage suggests focusing on quality investments in domestic companies with strong balance sheets and cash flow.

Speculative sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, high-yield bonds, and small-cap equities are expected to be particularly vulnerable under an aggressive tariff regime. Moreover, the emphasis on national security and industrial policy could lead to long-term shifts in trade practices, reinforcing the need for a strategic and diversified investment portfolio.