Turkey’s elections will be tough for Erdogan
2022.12.12 06:28
Turkey’s elections will be tough for Erdogan
Budrigannews.com – According to data released on Monday, Turkey’s unemployment rate increased to 10.2% in October, posing a potential threat to President Tayyip Erdogan’s chances of winning re-election in 2019. This is despite the fact that inflation is expected to fall and the currency should remain largely stable.
Before the presidential and parliamentary elections that will be held in May or June, more than 20 years after Erdogan and his AK Party first came to power, economic growth is also expected to continue cooling to below trend levels.
Turkish authorities and experts said positions and Gross domestic product presented political race trump cards for the president, whose favorable to development political standing has been wounded as of late as expansion took off and the lira cratered to noteworthy lows.
An anonymous senior Turkish economy official stated, “Employment is a problematic situation, especially before the elections.”
Authorities implemented a policy of tightly controlling foreign exchange after a currency crash a year ago, and they anticipate that the lira will remain stable well into 2023.
Another boon for Erdogan, who is expected to win a close vote in opinion polls, is that annual inflation is expected to fall to around 40% by election time, down from 85% at the moment.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. By the middle of 2023, analysts anticipate that inflation will reach 40%, after which it will rebound largely as a result of the fiscal stimulus provided before the vote. They stated that inflation “has had a massive impact on real wages,” and they added that they will also depend on the anticipated increase in the minimum wage.
According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point month-over-month in October to 10.2%, up from a more than four-year low of 9.8% in August.
Given that there will be six million first-time voters next year and that a large majority of young Turks have stated that they want change, the fact that youth unemployment increased by nearly two percentage points to just below 22% may be cause for concern.
A significant increase in administered wages could result in layoffs early next year, which would exacerbate employment pressures. On the other hand, economic expansion is beginning to slow down after a 3.9% annual expansion in the third quarter.
“Compared to the third quarter, growth is likely to be lower in the final quarter. However, the main issue, given the current circumstances, is the first quarter of next year,” the official in charge of the economy stated.
Reuters surveyed four analysts and found that, absent a fresh depreciation of the lira, May inflation would range from 35% to 43%.
After reaching a 24-year high a month earlier, annual consumer price inflation in November was just below 85 percent. Due to the base effect at the end of the year and rising global energy costs, it is anticipated to fall significantly.
The lira lost 44% of its value against the dollar the previous year and has lost another 29% this year. But it hasn’t changed much since the beginning of October.
