Turkey inflation higher than expected, teeing up tough rate decision
2024.12.03 04:27
By Nevzat Devranoglu
ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkish inflation was higher than expected at 47.09% annually and 2.24% on a monthly basis in November, official data showed on Tuesday, potentially reducing the prospect of an interest rate cut later this month.
Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks jumped 5.1% from the previous month, the Turkish Statistical Institute data showed, underlining the central bank’s continued struggle against years of high inflation. Health-related prices rose 2.69%.
In a Reuters poll, the consumer price index inflation rate was expected to slow to 46.6% on an annual basis, while the monthly figure was seen at 1.91%, mainly due to food and medicine prices.
Although above expectations, annual inflation in November was at its lowest level since mid-2023. In October, annual inflation was 48.58% with the monthly rate at 2.88%.
The central bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points since June last year as part of an abrupt shift to economic orthodoxy, and has kept its policy rate steady at 50% since March.
It is watching monthly inflation closely as it decides when to cut its main interest rate, with expectations having grown in recent weeks that easing could come as soon as December.
Delaying rate cuts until next year, after “critical decisions” on the minimum wage and other administered prices “would be more appropriate”, said Haluk Burumcekci, founding partner at Burumcekci Consulting, of an expected Jan. 1 rise to minimum wage.
But he added the central bank’s latest policy statement “suggests that rate cuts are a serious option” for December.
After its policy meeting last month, the bank said it would set its rate to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path, setting the stage for a cautious easing cycle.
The bank had also predicted that food would elevate overall inflation in November. Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said on Tuesday that while food inflation remained high, aside from that there was a broadly more positive trend.
The Turkish lira was little changed after the data at 34.7505 to the dollar, having earlier touched a record low.
Economists had flagged medicine prices as an inflation driver in November since the government late last month hiked by 23.5% the euro rate for imported medicines.
The domestic producer price index was up 0.66% month-on-month in November for an annual rise of 29.47%, according to the data.
The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling to 44.8% by year-end, close to the central bank’s target of 44%. It also showed inflation falling to 26.5% at end-2025, compared to the central bank’s view of 21%.
