Trump and immigration: What could actually happen?

A potential Trump 2.0 administration is poised to double down on stringent immigration policies, but what are the realistic outcomes? According to Evercore ISI, along with taxes and trade, immigration is a pivotal macro-policy driver under Trump, especially with immigration emerging as a top voter issue and giving Trump a significant edge.

A Trump victory would likely result in immediate actions to curb immigration. “Expect a Trump 2.0 Administration to move quickly to limit inflows via asylum and parole and to begin withdrawing protected statuses from as many as 5 million people,” Evercore ISI analysts state.

Interior removals, however, are anticipated to take longer to ramp up.

The bank explains that one key difference this time is the improved legal groundwork. “Trump’s future actions on immigration will be far more likely to survive legal challenge than under Trump 1.0 due to better preparation and a more favorable judiciary,” analysts explain. They add that suggests that Trump 2.0’s immigration measures could have more staying power in the face of judicial scrutiny.

Despite Trump’s claims of deporting 15-20 million people, Evercore ISI highlights practical limitations. “There is no real mechanism to achieve Trump’s goal of deporting 15-20 million people,” they state.

Instead, Evercore says more realistic scenarios involve significant but smaller scale increases in removals: “500,000-1 million per year in a base case and 2-3 million per year in a high case.”

Achieving the high case could provoke major backlash, potentially involving “large-scale use of the military to conduct immigration raids.”

Trump 2.0 is also expected to scrutinize traditional legal pathways, including family-based immigration and temporary work visas for high-skill workers (H-1B).

Evercore says policies targeting immigrants already in the U.S. may lead to increased voluntary out-migration, adding to the outflows from formal removals.