Treasuries slip, dollar firm as markets grapple with US politics

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) – U.S. bond futures slipped and the dollar firmed on Monday as investors wagered the attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump made his victory more likely, while injecting a whole new level of political uncertainty into markets.

A holiday in Japan made for thin trading conditions and the early action was confined to a modest rise in the dollar while Treasury futures slipped.

Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.

Proposals to levy tariffs on imports would push prices higher while eating into consumer spending power. Meanwhile, restrictions on migration could tighten the labour market and put upward pressure on wages.

“The market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterized by a stronger U.S. dollar and a steepening of the U.S. Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have further improved following this incident,” said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring investments in Singapore.

Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 38 cents. The current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win the election as Democrats.

The dollar edged up 0.3% on the Japanese yen to 158.15 but remained well short of its recent 161.96 top following a bout of suspected intervention.

The euro eased slightly to $1.0883, and the firmed a shade to 104.20.

Futures for 10-year Treasuries slipped 13 ticks, while cash bonds were untraded due to the Japanese holiday.

and Nasdaq futures were both little changed.

was shut, but futures were trading at 41,300 compared to a cash close of 41,190.

A busy week for data kicks off with Chinese gross domestic product on Monday where annual growth is seen slowing slightly to 5.1% in the second quarter. Retail sales and industrial output for June are also due, while China’s once-in-five-year gathering of top officials runs from July 15-18.

Figures from the United States include retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and weekly jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears later Monday and is bound to be asked for his reaction to last week’s subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 94% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to hold rates at 3.75%, ahead of another cut seen likely in September.

Among the host of companies reporting earnings this week are Goldman Sachs, BlackRock (NYSE:), Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix (NASDAQ:) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

In commodity markets, gold held at $2,408 an ounce, just off last week’s top of $2,424. [GOL/]

Oil prices inched up, having fallen on Friday amid signs of progress on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. [O/R]

gained 28 cents to $85.31 a barrel, while rose 31 cents to $82.52 per barrel.