Tesla Share Price Implies Over 10M Units by 2030, Morgan Stanley Says
2022.06.16 20:41
Tesla (TSLA) Share Price Implies Over 10M Units by 2030, Morgan Stanley Says
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Adam Jonas said in a note to investors Thursday that Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) share price implies more than 10mm units by 2030.
In a broader note looking at ‘what’s in the price’ for pure-play US electric vehicle names such as Tesla, Rivian (RIVN), Lucid (LCID), and Fisker (FSR), Jonas said that “Tesla’s share price implies >10mm units by 2030 at a 20% EBITDA margin on our model.”
Jonas, a longtime Tesla bull, currently has an Overweight rating and a $1,300 price target on Tesla.
“We note that our $1,300 price target is based on 8.7mm units by 2030 which supports just over $600/share of core auto value with the remaining $700/share driven by recurring revenue and other services from the platform,” wrote Jonas.
“Our PT of $1,300 is comprised of 6 components: (1) $608/share for core Tesla Auto business on 8.6mm units in 2030, 8.5% WACC, 15x 2030 exit EBITDA multiple, exit EBITDA margin of 20%. (2) Tesla Mobility at $74 on DCF with ~500k cars at $1.7/mile by 2030. (3) Tesla as a 3rd party supplier at $131/share. 4) Energy at $111/share, 5) Insurance at $37/share, & 6) Network Services at $338, 25mm MAUs, $100 ARPU by 2030, 20% discount,” he added.
Regarding potential risks to the upside, the analyst listed them as disclosure on service revenue, increased full self-driving attach rate, cost milestones on new batteries, new model introductions, a 3rd party battery win, and geographic penetration and new capacity.
By Sam Boughedda
