Take Five: Up and away
2024.10.18 05:10
(Reuters) – Start your electric engines, Tesla (NASDAQ:) is the first of the “Magnificent Seven” to report earnings, while finance chiefs descend on Washington and markets get a taste of how business activity is holding up in October just as the U.S. election looms.
Here’s your look at what matters for markets next week from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, and Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe and Karin Strohecker in London.
1/ ELECTRIC DREAMS
As the latest earnings season goes full steam, focus is on Tesla, one of the first of big U.S. tech companies to report.
Tesla shares have taken a hit this month, following a long-awaited unveiling of its robotaxis that some investors said was short on practical details. Year-to-date, Tesla’s shares have lost around 11%, compared to the ‘s 22.5% gain.
A weaker-than-expected Tesla earnings in late July, along with underwhelming results from Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:), sparked a U.S. stocks selloff that was a prelude to the steeper drop in early August.
Though investors are more optimistic about the U.S. economy after a blowout jobs report and last month’s 50 bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a soft earnings report from Tesla on Oct. 23 could reignite worries about tech stock valuations, which have climbed along with the broader indexes.
2/ FAR AWAY
Finance officials head to Washington DC for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group from Monday to debate how countries can navigate slowing growth and ever-rising debt.
Some 5,000 miles east, in the Russian city of Kazan, President Vladimir Putin hosts a summit of BRICS leaders, seeking support in his standoff with the West. Russia says leaders from Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which account for a third of global economic output, will be there. Key topics include a push to end U.S. dollar dominance.
By then, there will be just days to go to the biggest political risk event of 2024: a U.S. election that is too close to call and one that could mark the start of a new global trade war if Donald Trump wins – a prospect seen as damaging to economies everywhere.
3/ THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER
When September business activity data were released a month ago, investors got a shock from news of a sharp euro zone contraction and ramped up ECB rate cut bets.
So October PMIs on Thursday will likely be scrutinised for a sense of how rapidly rates have further to fall. PMI data from other economies are published the same day.
Note, the final euro zone Sept purchasing managers index, while below the 50 mark that divides contraction from expansion, was not as dire as the initial estimate.
And other data suggest tentative reasons for optimism in a bloc that has skirted recession for over a year. Q3 lending demand rose; German sentiment has improved.
But tell that to the euro. It will lag as long as investors reckon the ECB will ease policy at a faster pace than the Fed.
4/ PROOF
Chinese stocks have been a near-perfect barometer of expectations for big bang stimulus from Beijing, and just a glance at a chart of the past two months shows how quickly hopes have been deflated.
Since the announcement of the biggest and broadest stimulus since the pandemic in late September, one highly anticipated briefing after another has passed without the details investors are craving – particularly the size of fiscal spending.
Just how powerful the fine print can be was shown Friday, when the launch of promised swap and relending schemes sparked a stocks surge.
But with further stimulus clarity not expected in any major capacity before a meeting of parliament’s standing committee, probably early next month, that leaves a weeks-long void when stoking the equity rally looks a very big ask.
5/ MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
The UK’s new Labour government presents its first budget on Oct. 30 and with the nation’s finances strained and growth stalling, investors will scrutinise fresh monthly government borrowing data next week.
Public sector net debt has hit 100% of economic output and government borrowing in August, at 13.73 billion pounds, 3 billion pounds above economists’ forecasts. September’s borrowing amount will be revealed on Oct. 22.
After finance minister Rachel Reeves identified a fiscal “black hole” worth 22 billion pounds, but ruled out raising taxes on working people, stock market investors suspect they are in the firing line from potential hikes to capital gains taxes.
Bond market lenders are also, according to BNY, selling gilts at the fastest pace since former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ chaotic 2022 mini-budget, as speculation mounts about the UK increasing debt issuance to fund public investment.
