Take Five: The French election and the high cost of war
2022.04.11 10:56
2/2
FILE PHOTO: The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 3, 2022. REUTERS/Staff/
2/2
Two central banks in countries at opposite ends of the Pacific Ocean meet on Wednesday and could deliver the first half-point interest rate rises in any developed nation of this cycle.
Also on Wednesday the U.S. Fed, expected to follow Canada and New Zealand’s lead in May, gets March inflation data.
The following day the ECB will face pressure from its hawkish factions to start tightening policy.
And while a French election upset did not happen during Sunday’s voting round, it could yet materialise in the runoff later this month.
Here’s your week ahead in markets from Tom Westbrook in Singapore, Ira Iosebashvili and David Henry in New York; Sujata Rao and Dhara Ranasinghe in London.
1/MADAME LA PRESIDENTE?
A late opinion poll resurgence for far-right French politician Marine Le Pen ahead of Sunday’s presidential election voting round had markets running scared. She ended up trailing incumbent Emmanuel Macron — as expected — but the April 24 run-off between the two promises to be a cliffhanger.
Macron is still expected to win the presidency. But some pollsters predict the vote split at 51%/49%, meaning victory either way is within the margin of error.
Le Pen no longer advocates leaving the euro but a win for her would hamper European cohesion, and her big-spending, tax-cutting agenda would blow out France’s spending bill.
The premium investors demand to hold French debt versus Germany has eased slightly after Sunday’s result, but more turmoil looks inevitable before the April 24 final round.
2/HAWKS OVER FRANKFURT
With euro area inflation running at 7.5%, the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday will see the hawks out in force.
They have become increasingly vocal, while markets are now gunning for a July rate rise, having ramped up their bets since the March meeting.
ECB chief economist Philip Lane warns against reacting to short-term, energy-driven price surges. And the Ukraine war is taking a toll on the economy and consumer confidence.
The ECB knows well the price of making a policy mistake. It has raised rates in the past, only to make a speedy U-turn. Yet inflation shows no signs of peaking, let alone returning to the 2% target. The hawks’ clamour may get louder.
3/BIG GUNS, BIGGER RATE HIKES
Canada and New Zealand appear poised for their biggest interest rate hikes in 20 years, underscoring the worldwide scramble to contain inflation.
Both banks meet on Wednesday. Swaps price a 90%-plus chance of a 50 basis-point hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a better-than-80% likelihood of the Bank of Canada does the same.
With Canadian inflation seen above target until 2024, another 50 bps move may come in June. New Zealand delivered a 25 bps hike in February — its third — and flagged the possibility of bigger rises ahead.
These would be the most drastic G10 hikes this cycle. Until May, when the Federal Reserve is tipped to lift rates 50 bps.
4/PRICE WAR
Minutes from the Fed’s March policy meeting showed meatier rate hikes and an aggressive balance sheet runoff are likely in coming months as the central bank battles inflation. .
All that puts a spotlight on Wednesday’s inflation data. February’s 7.9% print was the largest annual increase in 40 years. In March, consumer prices grew 8.3% year-on-year, economists polled by Reuters predict, as the Ukraine-Russia war sent commodity prices spiralling higher.
And as Americans dig deeper for rent, gasoline and food, wage gains are eroding — inflation adjusted average hourly earnings fell 2.6% year-on-year in February. A chunky inflation print will bolster the case for more dramatic policy tightening.
5/BANKS TO THE TEST
As rising bond yields, labour shortages and sky-high commodity prices buffet stock markets, first-quarter U.S. earnings will give investors a chance to gauge balance sheet resilience, cost pressures on companies and share buyback plans.
Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth is expected at 6.8% in the Jan-March quarter, versus the 53% bounceback seen a year ago from COVID-time doldrums, according to Refinitiv IBES.
Big banks kick off the season with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) reporting on Wednesday, followed a day later by Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
Bank shares have fared badly this year, with 11% losses, versus the S&P 500’s 6%
The six biggest lenders are projected to show a 35% decline in net income versus a year earlier. Investment bank revenues may have declined, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while some banks must make provisions for Russia-linked losses.
Finally, watch whether banks may curb share buybacks after seeing excess capital dented by Q1 losses on their bond holdings. [L2N2W31XD]
