Take Five: Start up the engine for Q4
2024.09.27 04:33
(Reuters) – Financial markets will enter the fourth quarter fizzing with anticipation of a drop in global interest rates from high levels in the past few years and the only question is whether the economy drops off as quickly, or gently slows.
Here is your look at what’s big in markets in the coming week from Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore, Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam and Marc Jones and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/QUARTER OF CHAOS
The third quarter draws to a close on Tuesday after a tumultuous few months.
August saw widespread turmoil when the normally docile Japan yen went wild at almost exactly the same time that the Mag 7 tech bulls broke down and the top central banks started to fret again about their economies.
Stocks have largely overcome their lurches since, but the yen is about to clinch its best quarterly performance since the 2008 global financial meltdown, benchmark global borrowing costs and oil are both down almost 15% and China is opening the stimulus spigots.
So roll on the final leg of the year, which will be dominated by November’s U.S. election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. But that should be quiet, right?
2/A DELICATE BALANCE
The Federal Reserve kicked off its rate-cutting cycle with a 50-basis point reduction on Sept. 18, but employment continues to be a focal point for investors gauging how rapidly the central bank will need to cut monetary policy in coming months.
Market participants are keen to see whether next Friday’s data will support Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s sunny outlook for cooling inflation and resilient growth, a key factor behind the markets’ surge to new highs following the central bank’s meeting.
Softness in the labour market could revive fears that an economic downturn may be imminent, while unexpectedly strong jobs growth may stir worries that the Fed will not cut rates as deeply as expected as it seeks to avoid an inflation flare-up.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy to have created a median of 145,000 jobs in September, versus 142,000 in August.
3/TURNING THE PAGE Factory activity data in China is due on Monday across both the official and private sector surveys, just a week after the country unveiled its most aggressive stimulus package since the pandemic to shore up its ailing economy. Of course, it’ll be too early to see the effects of the measures – ranging from outsized rate cuts to support for stocks – on the economy just yet. But given the wave of optimism that’s swept across global markets in the wake of Beijing’s announcement, perhaps investors may for once look past Monday’s likely dismal numbers. While the release of China’s purchasing managers’ index data headlines the economic calendar in Asia, in Thailand a meeting between the country’s government and central bank will also be of note.
The two will discuss the domestic inflation target and the recent strength of the baht, having been at loggerheads over delivering a rate cut for months now.
4/GLUM BRITAIN
In the race towards neutral rates, the Bank of England is trailing well behind the likes of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Markets show traders believe the BoE is almost certainly going to cut rates far more slowly than most other major central banks. Upcoming data on second-quarter UK GDP is unlikely to sway the hand of policymakers in London, who are still concerned about pockets of persistent inflation in the economy. The new Labour government has sounded the alarm about the dire state of Britain’s finances – something October’s budget will seek to address – and consumers are at their most miserable for six months as a result. Figures due in the coming week on mortgage lending and consumer credit might provide some much-needed cheer.
5/DEFLATING
Euro zone inflation numbers due on Tuesday will be under close scrutiny, as the ECB decides whether to cut rates again in October.
In both France and Spain, consumer prices rose less than expected in September, by 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively.
Economists reckon the overall euro zone print fell below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since June 2021 thanks to lower energy prices, though it’s expected to rise again in the final months of the year.
Investors now see over a 50% chance of a 25 basis-point October rate cut they thought was unlikely just last week as euro zone business activity unexpectedly contracted in September, stoking fears the ECB is behind the curve.
Dovish policymakers are now preparing to fight for that cut. Hawks are likely to resist.
Traders see inflation falling much faster than the ECB expects.
