Spirit purchase could be ~4% dilutive to Boeing’s EPS in the first year: Vertical Research

Vertical Research analysts estimate that Boeing’s (NYSE:) acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems (NYSE:) could be dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) in the first year. Their initial calculations suggest a potential EPS decline of around 4%.

The research firm explains that the all-stock deal includes ceding certain Airbus assets from Spirit in exchange for $559 million, creating a complex financial picture for analysts. A significant portion of Spirit’s sales will become internal to Boeing, with only an estimated $1.3 billion remaining as external sales.

Vertical Research factored in potential cost savings from increased program integration and reduced expenses at Spirit. Despite an anticipated boost to Boeing’s pre-tax profit (PBT) in 2026 (assuming a mid-2025 deal closure), the significant equity issuance is projected to dilute EPS by 4% in the first year and 3% by calendar year 2026.

The analysts acknowledge the year-long timeline for closing the deal, limiting Boeing’s near-term control over Spirit. However, resolving Spirit’s future is expected to improve collaboration on aircraft programs, particularly the troubled 737 MAX, and indirectly benefit Airbus by removing Spirit from financial strain.

While Boeing’s legacy systems should ease integration, challenges and time are needed to address Spirit’s issues, according to Vertical Research.

Vertical Research also revised its 2024 core EPS estimate from a loss of $0.04 to $0.57, and free cash flow (FCF) from an inflow of $888 million to an outflow of $1.8 billion. Their 2025 estimates and $208 price target remain unchanged.

Despite removing a key uncertainty, Boeing faces ongoing challenges, including a Department of Justice criminal case, a potential IAM strike, a leadership transition, and various regulatory and development hurdles.

Vertical Research believes these issues overshadow the potential benefits of the aerospace upcycle and maintain a Hold rating, suggesting alternative investment options in the aerospace sector offer less risk.