S&P 500: Strong Support Holds Firm, Should You Go Long Now?
2023.11.28 03:37
December futures just drifting aimlessly after the long holiday weekend.
We are still holding just 2 points above minor support at 4542/38 to keep the bulls in control and perhaps on the next leg higher we can reach my next target of 4591/94, perhaps as far as 4615/19 eventually.
Strong support at 4542/38. Longs need stops below 4533.
A break lower risks a slide to 4505/00 and even 4480/75 is possible.
S&P Futures-4-Hour Chart
December futures edged higher to 16173 last week as we look for 16300 next target. Further gains can target 16390/410.
The best buying opportunity should be at 15850/830 and longs need stops below 15770. We should also have strong support at 15700/660.
Nasdaq Futures-4-Hour Chart
December continues higher through 35080/35100 to my next targets of 35170/190 and 35230 and now 35400/450 with a high for the day exactly here. No sign of an imminent reversal so we look for 35570/590. Further gains this week can target 35650/670.
Support again at 35290/280 and 35130/080. Longs need stops below 35000.
DJI Futures-4-Hour Chart
News Summary:
Wall St indexes close lower, Europe also declines
climbs to six-month high in choppy trade
Eyes on U.S. and EU inflation data later this week
Oil market tense ahead of delayed OPEC+ meeting
Australian retail sales for October.
Market Movements:
Wall Street indexes closed lower, and Europe also experienced declines.
Gold climbed to a six-month high in choppy trade.
Currency Market:
The slid against most major currencies.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve is done cutting interest rates contributed to the dollar’s decline.
Precious Metals:
Gold reached a six-month high, supported by the softer dollar and expectations for a pause in Fed tightening.
U.S. Housing Market:
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell more than expected in October.
Higher mortgage rates reduced affordability, but the housing segment remains supported by a shortage of previously owned properties on the market.
Dollar Index and Major Currencies:
The fell 0.213%, with the euro up 0.12% to $1.0952.
The strengthened 0.55% against the greenback, and sterling was last trading at $1.2625, up 0.14% on the day.
Oil Market:
Oil futures lost ground ahead of a delayed OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, where member countries will discuss supply curbs into 2024.
settled down 0.9% at $74.86 per barrel, and fell 0.7% to $79.98.
Gold Prices and Geopolitical Factors:
Weaker dollar and concerns about the Israel-Hamas conflict boosted gold prices.
added 0.6% to $2,013.79 an ounce.
Stock Market Performance:
Wall Street indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones falling 0.16%, the losing 0.20%, and the dropping 0.07%.
Global Stock Indexes and Bond Yields:
Global stock indexes gained ground as bond yields dropped.
Cooling inflation in developed economies raised expectations that central banks might cut interest rates.
European Central Bank’s View:
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde mentioned that the fight to contain price growth is ongoing, citing strong wage growth and an uncertain outlook.
However, she pointed to easing euro zone inflation pressure.
U.S. Treasuries:
Benchmark notes fell during the day, down 9.9 basis points to 4.385% from 4.484% late on Friday.
Upcoming Economic Indicator:
Australian retail sales for October will be a significant economic indicator.
Economists expect month-on-month growth to slow to 0.1% from 0.9% in September.
Australian Dollar (AUD):
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak, and the market anticipates her potentially hawkish stance.
The has risen above $0.66, one of the biggest winners among major currencies.
Market Outlook:
The Australian dollar has risen 5% in a month, in line with other G10 currencies, as traders factor in the end of the U.S. tightening cycle and potential Fed rate cuts in the second half of next year.
