Stock Markets Analysis and Opinion

S&P 500: Selling May Resume, but Uptrend Remains Intact

2023.08.09 03:16

It’s been a choppy few sessions as the takes a step back from 4,600 resistance.

Between a sluggish Chinese economy and renewed scrutiny of regional banks, overnight futures traders were not in a good mood Tuesday morning, and the index skidded more than 1% in early trade.

But as ominous as that open felt, most investors shrugged and didn’t sell. The initial wave of selling stalled 90 minutes after the open, and the index bounced more than 30 points by the close.

Even though the session ultimately closed down 0.4%, considering how the session started, it was a good day for bulls.

S&P 500 Index Daily ChartS&P 500 Index Daily Chart

As I’ve written in previous posts, the domestic equity market hasn’t cared about China in years, and the regional banking crisis is old news.

If these events hadn’t taken us down previously, there is little reason to think Tuesday’s headline reruns would turn out any differently.

While any headline can trigger momentary bouts of second-guessing near recent highs, we need something truly new and unexpected to flip the market’s stubbornly half-full mood.

At this point, this latest test of 4,500 support looks like nothing more than a vanilla step back following a big run higher. Without a doubt, the selling can resume, but given this afternoon’s nice bounce, it doesn’t look like this is the end of the uptrend.

For the nimble, Tuesday’s bounce was buyable with a stop under those early lows. If the bounce continues on Wednesday, add more and lift stops. If the selling returns, get out and wait for the next opportunity.

This is an easy setup for those with the courage to take advantage of the market’s momentary second-guessing.

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