S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Ripe for a Healthy Correction After Reaching Overbought Levels
2024.07.10 03:13
Stocks finished the day mostly lower yesterday, with about 100 more stocks down than up for the , even though the index finished flattish.
The market has been relatively flat, with some metrics hitting certain levels of what seems like stupidity. One has to wonder how far things will be pushed before the rubber band snaps back the other way.
Indexes Setting Up for a Correction?
The , for example, has now traded above the upper Bollinger band four out of the 5-weeks and has an RSI of over 75 on the weekly chart.
The NASDAQ 100 also reached a 100% extension off its March 2020 lows when measuring the length of the latest move higher.
It doesn’t have to mean anything; we have seen similar measurements that haven’t mattered at all. But one that we can pay some attention to.
Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 had a nice setup for a reversal, but the investors blew it off, and it managed to push even higher, putting the RSI on the weekly chart to almost 77. It is now at the very upper end of the range of what could be completing a rising wedge that we have been tracking for several weeks.
This has allowed the S&P 500 to rise to a 78.6% extension off its March 2020 lows.
You have even seen the 1-month implied correlation index reach historic lows, falling to around 4. That is well below the prior all-time low seen in late 2017 or early 2018.
Wingstop – Canary in the Coalmine for the Market?
Meanwhile, Wingstop (NASDAQ:) could be a canary in the coal mine —or the chicken in the coal mine, for that matter. As noted a few weeks back, Wingstop appeared to be . Apparently, that rising wedge pattern broke during my time away, and it has led to a small drop over the past two weeks or so.
The big question will be what happens for the WING at the 10-week exponential moving average because that has been a support level for the shares. A break of that moving average would signal a break in trend.
We care about Wing because, for some reason, it has been a very good proxy for where the S&P 500 is going next. If Wing is rolling over, then it is time for us to pay some serious attention. Wing, more than anything, seems to represent risk sentiment.
Because somehow it even leads the and the last time I checked, Wingstop was a chicken wing chain, and although I have never eaten at one because I haven’t come across many, I’m pretty sure they have nothing to do with AI or selling GPUs.
The one thing WING does have in common is that it is a risk asset. This seems to suggest that the rise in valuations across the market has much more to do with excess risk-taking than anything else. So, at this point, we have to wait to see if the rubber band snaps back or breaks altogether.
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