S&P 500 Key Indicators to Watch as Indexes Eyes Higher Levels
2024.08.15 11:22
Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.
Covered short 8/2/24 at 5346.56 = gain 3.18%; Short SPX on 7/31/24 at 5522.30.
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes : Long on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We are up over 22% this year so far; SPX is up around 13%. Above is the daily SPY. The bottom window is the / ratio, which is hitting new short-term highs along with the SPY suggesting the current rally may continue.Today’s makes five days up in a row which predicts the market will be higher within 5 days 73% of the time. SPY may try to test the 560 SPY gap area. Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.
Last week’s commentary still stands and may be the outcome for the current market conditions (chart updated today’s trading), “The top window is the daily RSI for the SPY. On July 10 the RSI close at 81.98. RSI closes of 80 to 85 are never the last high in the SPY and at some point, the market will work higher.”
So an RSI close of 80 and above is a bullish longer-term sign but short-term can stall the rally. The current RSI close of 81.98 is in the stall the rally mode which can last several weeks.
We have two squares on the chart above that may appear similar to current market conditions. We are leaning towards the one in 2020 after the Covid cash.”
The top window is the daily GDX; the next lower window is the daily 18 periods RSI for the /Gold ratio. Short-term lows have formed in GDX when the RSI for the Silver/Gold ratio reaches below 30 (current reading is 29.39).
The weekly and monthly charts remain on the buy signal, and the daily chart shows positive divergences using the GDX cumulative up-down volume indicator.
