S&P 500: Key Indicators and Price Levels to Watch Today
2024.09.19 05:05
Monitoring purposes; Sold long 9/13/24 at 5626.02= gain 2.23%; Long SPX on 9/5/24 at 5503.41.
Sold SPX on 8/19/24 at 5608.25 = Gain 8.14%gain; Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes : Long on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We are up over 28% this year so far; SPX up around 18%. The bottom window is the / ratio. A bearish sign is triggered when the SPY makes a higher high and the SPY/VIX ratio makes a lower high; noted on chart. We shaded in light pink the times when the SPY was up 7 days or more in a row. Up 7 days in a row or more usually signals times where the market will at least flip sideways or worst stage a pull back.
It is said “If a market can’t hold its high, it will reverse and attempt to take out the previous low”; previous low in this case is the 8/6 low near 540 SPY.
Seasonality also leans bearish starting now. Being patience for now. Sold long 9/13/24 at 5626.02= gain 2.23%; Long SPX on 9/5/24 at 5503.41.
Seasonality leans bearish starting yesterday on the FOMC meeting and runs into the end of month. The bottom window is the 5-day average of the NYSE advance/NYSE decline. We noted the times with blue lines when this indicator reached above 3.00 (current reading is 3.29).
In most cases, the market either flipped sideways or declined (the last two times the market declined). Bigger trend remain bullish and new highs later this year is possible but the next month or so could be choppy. 
Above is the monthly GDX chart (top window). The bottom window is the monthly GDX up down volume percent and next higher window is the monthly GDX Advance/Decline percent. These two monthly indicators rule the direction for GDX. Major buy signals are generated when both monthly indicators close above their mid Bollinger bands (noted in shaded green) and major sell signals are generated when both indicators close below their mid Bollinger bands (noted in shaded pink).
Signals of this type last a minimum of 1 ½ years to as long as four years. The last signal was generated on June 1, 2024. Adding 1 ½ years (minimum time for signal) to current signal would give a target to December 2025; but could last as long as June 2028 (four years max).
