S&P 500: How to Trade a Wild Ride Like Yesterday’s
2023.05.11 03:30
The finished Wednesday’s session 0.4% higher after inflation fell to 4.9%, and this key metric is now at the lowest level in two years.
While the above statement makes it seem like Wednesday was a perfectly reasonable session, lift the hood, and you see it was anything but. An 0.8% opening gain disintegrated into a 0.5% loss before bouncing nearly 1% to finish up 0.4%.
Curbing inflation is critical for the Fed and the economy, so many investors were paying attention. The result fell in the middle of the road, not too hot or too cool, but that didn’t stop impulsive traders from overreacting.
But this impulsive behavior isn’t new. This is a volatile market, and traders have been overreacting to headlines and price action for a long time.
As wild as the ride was, Wednesday’s late rebound confirms this market is still on solid ground and that 4,200 is still the target. But as is usually the case, getting there is anything but a smooth ride.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart
As someone positioned for the bounce up to 4,200, the midday tumble was disappointing, and it even convinced me to lock in some of Friday’s profits proactively.
But just because I sell a position doesn’t mean I’m giving up on it. As easy as it is to buy back in, we should never fear getting defensive when something doesn’t feel right.
While we can’t jump every time we see our shadow, there are instances like Wednesday when the market does something unexpected.
As much as I liked Friday’s rebound, I’m not willing to ride this position back into the dirt, and I always have a backup plan in case things go wrong.
But just as important as getting out is willing to get back in after we recognize the weakness was a false alarm. Sometimes we get lucky, and the false alarm moves far enough that we can buy back in at even lower prices.
Other times, like Wednesday, the whipsaw is so compressed that we are lucky to get back in near where we got out.
It is a hassle to sell and buy back a few hours later; it sure beats allowing a profitable position to become a loser.
Wednesday was a wild session, but the refusal to break down means the near-term trend is still higher.
