S&P 500 Futures: Best Case Scenario for Bears Is a Drop to 4300
2023.07.18 05:40
It was interesting today, during my tastylive show, to see the blast above last week’s high during my broadcasting. Clearly a lot of “buy” orders were triggered, but interestingly, the entire breakout fell the pieces within minutes.
Short-term, we’ve clearly got a range to deal with: on the upside, there are the highs we’ve witnessed today and last week. On the downside, and far more important, we’ve got the Fibonacci level which provided such plain support over the past couple of days.
My own ambition for how low the market could go over the next month or two has been severely dampened. The “worst case” (AKA best case) scenario would be a drop to about 4300 on the /ES, which is just a little over 5% down from here. (B.F.D., right?) Given the endless trillions of dollars of support the government is shoving down the market’s throat, I just can’t see it breaking that, unless a planet-killing asteroid is an hour or two away from destroying all of Earth.
The boys in Gainesville keep calling for a Wave Three Wipeout, but they moved into Weasel Words territory weeks ago, and they’re still at it (let’s just say “relabeling” is a favorite activity). The predictions are along the lines of “We’ve just seen the top, unless tomorrow it goes higher, in which case that wasn’t the top, and we’ll just have to see about that.” Yeah, thanks, fellas.
At least earnings season is going to kick into full gear on Tuesday morning, and we can pay attention to things are AREN’T the goddamned Federal Reserve for a little while.
