S&P 500 correcting 10% ‘highly likely’ says Morgan Stanley

Traders should prepare for a stock market correction due to uncertainties surrounding the US presidential campaign, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said in an inteview with Bloomberg.

Wilson told Bloomberg Television that he thinks “the chance of a 10% correction is highly likely sometime between now and the election,” adding that the “third quarter is “going to be choppy.”

The anticipation of the Fed cutting rates twice this year and the buzz around artificial intelligence have driven the to a 17% increase this year following its 24% surge in 2023. Even long-time bear Wilson has adjusted his stance from the past few years.

However, Wilson told Bloomberg that “your likelihood of upside from now until year-end is very low, much lower than normal.” He placed the chances of stock prices closing the year higher than they are now at 20% to 25%.

Even so, Wilson isn’t particularly concerned about a pullback. Instead, he said it could create opportunities for investors to buy in since valuations are currently “unexciting” following the S&P 500’s double-digit gain this year.

He believes that at the moment, the best way to play the stock market is through individual stocks rather than indexes, with the analyst and his team continuing to recommend high-quality growth names, and quality in general.

While Wilson feels the momentum will continue, he notes the problem is finding shares in those categories that are cheap. He said in the interview that “if they were to come in 10%, then we’d probably get interested again.”