Slow Airbus deliveries raise fresh questions over annual target

By Tim Hepher

PARIS (Reuters) -Airbus deliveries are closing September at a slower pace than a year ago, raising increased questions over the European planemaker’s ability to hit a revised annual target, analysts and industry sources said.

In July, Airbus issued a profit warning and lowered its full-year delivery target to 770 aircraft from 800, blaming shortages of engines and other items. It pushed back an underlying medium-term production goal by a year to 2027.

Delays in deliveries and the ramp-up in production of core narrowbody jets have triggered growing impatience inside Airbus, with Chief Executive Guillaume Faury voicing frustration over broadly flat production, people familiar with the company said.

Airbus has delivered around 30 aircraft to date in September, bringing the total so far this year to some 477, data provided to Reuters by consultancy Cirium Ascend showed.

If Airbus continues at this pace, then it could close the month with some 36 deliveries or 483 since the start of the year – below 488 seen at the nine-month stage a year ago, it showed.

Airbus delivered 55 jets in September last year.

“They have been running very close to 2023 cumulative numbers all year, which further supports the potentially evolving hypothesis that they won’t make 770,” said Rob Morris, head of global consultancy at Cirium Ascend.

An Airbus spokesperson referred back to its latest guidance.

Airbus has a habit of pulling off surprises in the fourth quarter, though supply chains and internal production problems have increasingly weighed on its ability to catch up.

“Given the performance so far this year it feels as if the risk is more to the downside than the upside,” Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa said, adding concerns remained over the underlying production ramp-up beyond 2024.

Airbus has said it is targeting “around” 770 deliveries, meaning it could rely on that margin of tolerance to avoid another official guidance cut that could be seen as a blow to its senior management, analysts said.

CASH PRESSURE

Announcing the new target in July, Airbus cited what it described as delays in deliveries of LEAP engines built by Safran (EPA:) and GE Aerospace venture CFM for the narrowbody A320neo, as well as other parts like landing gear.

Two people familiar with the Airbus industrial network said the supply of engines continued to hamper some airplane deliveries and remained high on the planemaker’s watch list.

A GE Aerospace spokesperson referred to comments by CFO Rahul Ghai who told a Jefferies conference earlier this month that third-quarter engine output would be better than in the second quarter, “but still (show) pressure on a year-over-year basis”. He expected further improvement in the fourth quarter.

Airbus has been producing an average of around 50 of its benchmark A320neo narrowbody jets a month, barely changed since a year ago based on the tracking of test flights, Morris said.

The recent failure to make significant progress towards a medium-term target of 75 a month has ratcheted up internal pressure to preserve cash as Airbus stockpiles inventory to preserve flexibility, sources familiar with the matter said.

Airbus in July launched a belt-tightening and performance improvement plan called LEAD! as planemaking CEO Christian Scherer warned staff that unit costs were rising faster than unit revenues.

The first objective of the plan is to “save 2024 in terms of deliveries,” he said in a July memo seen by Reuters, adding it would “turn over every stone” and examine costs without taboo.