Russia turmoil to fuel market volatility, flight to safety

(Reuters) – Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters barrelled towards Moscow on Saturday after seizing a southern city overnight, with Russia’s military firing on them from the air but seemingly incapable of slowing their lightning advance.

Here are reactions from investors and analysts to the news:

STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST AT INTERACTIVE BROKERS:

“This is a truly exogenous event that leads to initial shock and a flight to safety. It should awaken from its stupor. First move is likely to be a bump in government bond prices (lower yields) and USD. Riskier assets tend to decline. The question is how much and how lasting the reaction will be, much of which depends upon unknowable developments.”

“Even with Russian embargoes, they still sell plenty of raw materials to sympathetic nations like China and matter to the global supply. It is reasonable to expect oil and other key commodity prices to rise. If oil prices rise sharply, that will indeed weigh upon equities and reignite stagflation fears. Gold is tough to read. In theory it should benefit from a flight to safety, but in practice a strong dollar can impede it.”

“U.S. treasuries should rise on the safety trade.”

“With Russia largely disconnected from the global economy, few U.S. or European companies will have direct impacts from instability in a country that’s already a pariah. So the broader markets will take their cues from bonds and commodities. Defense-related stocks should catch a bid – the world is not a safer place today – and commodity-linked stocks should also be outperformers for the reasons stated above.”

MICHAEL PURVES, CEO AT TALLBACKEN CAPITAL ADVISORS:

“Certain parts of the stock market have been flying really high, we do know that’s largely been driven by P/E expansion rather than earnings and this might give people an excuse to sell.”

“These types of geopolitical shocks are often short lived and usually don’t have much impact on the U.S. stock market but this time it may because stocks have run up so high.”

“Any time you have these kinds of political disturbances in a commodity nation you at least expect a short term shock to the prices of the commodities produced there.”

“We should start seeing classic risk off dynamics on Sunday night such as global equity futures lower, higher, treasury prices higher.”

DAVID KOTOK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT CUMBERLAND ADVISORS IN SARASOTA, FLORIDA:

“This is a potential civil war in Russia. Important implications as Putin is already weakened by events and now faces existential threat as does his antagonist.”

“Turmoil effects include the price and availability of Russian energy. Geopolitical impact on Russian alliances like Belarus and nearby countries in Soviet sphere. In EU what does Hungary (Orban) or NATO ally Turkey do.

“Regardless of the outcome, this is already a very big deal.

“Initial market reaction will be driven by news reports and by any concrete events. That is usually true of most rapidly changing event sequences. The strategic damage is already done. Every capital in the Russian alliance of countries and in the adversaries’ alliance and in the neutral alliance is rethinking the relationship with Putin.”

GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT IN MELBOURNE:

“Current reported Russian events are not helpful. It’s very concerning for the complex geopolitical global landscape and any uncertainty will obviously impact markets.”

“Higher vol lies ahead. However fundamentals will eventually resurface. That is, economies in developed markets remain resilient & central banks concerns’ with stubborn inflation creates many challenges as rates need to go higher & remain higher for longer.”

JAMIE HALSE, WHO MANAGES AN A$500 BILLION JAPAN-FOCUSED FUND AT PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT IN SYDNEY:“If Putin removed, pure speculation and a hypothetical on my part, troops withdrawn from Ukraine and peace deal agreed, then that would be bullish for Russian-exposed businesses, Eastern Europe stocks, probably Chinese stocks by implication. Bearish energy, resources and defense stocks.“Probably bearish Indian stocks too as the dividend they’ve received from cheap Russian oil likely disappears.“On the other hand, civil war, especially if prolonged, in a major nuclear armed nation should make anyone uncomfortable…(though) we don’t really know what’s going on at this point. Civil war may be too long a bow to draw.”

Source link