Russell 2000: What Small Caps’ January Trend Could Signal About Market
2025.01.16 06:44
Don’t get too excited about the lagging indicators; instead, focus on the present and future.
Most instruments are still in the January trading range, and we do not yet know what will be clear and what will fail.
Today, for example, the indices have rallied into resistance and the January trend trade is alive. 
In fact, at the time of writing, and (barely) had cleared the 50-DMA, but small caps and have not.
IWM rallied to the January 6th high, so look at how the stars will align.
The January trend trade sets on Thursday. It’s so exciting.
Nonetheless, most of the key sectors also remain below their 50 DMAs.
However, on the weekly charts, as I have written about recently, everything remains in a bull phase except .
The bigger news of the day: Quantum Day) announced by Jensen Huang, which sent the beat-up Quantum stocks soaring.
I have recently mentioned QUBT as a fave. That was up 54% at one point today.
What Else Is Rallying Beside Stocks?
Banks did it again many believe they will continue to outshine with a soft landing–but is that still the case?
and numbers may have come out softer, but the numbers show not only a shrinkage in productivity but also that prices paid reached an 8-month high, while the outlook for the next 6 months is at 2-year highs.
Yes, markets are happy as yields and the softened, but what else is rallying?
, , , , , and .
Only , my main inflation barometer outside of the silver to gold ratio, is up, but not up this year.
Sugar, as shown in the weekly chart, has broken down under the 200-WMA for the first time since December 2020. However, it is holding the August 2024 low. 
Sugar has been my go-to barometer for years.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) Scraped the 50-DMA-needs more
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 220 now support 227 resistance to clear
- Dow (DIA (BME:)) 435 the 50-DMA
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 514 must hold to confirm bull phase
- Regional banks (KRE) 60 must hold
- Semiconductors (SMH) Cleared the 50-DMA now must hold
- Transportation (IYT) Nice pop right up to but not thru the 50-DMA
- Biotechnology (IBB) 135 to clear
- Retail (XRT) 79 pivotal
- iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Here is where we find the biggest risk on look
