Russell 2000, Nasdaq Test Support Again; S&P 500 Holds Above 4,400: What’s Next?
2023.08.28 03:30
In principle, last Friday’s action was relatively bullish, with some decent bullish candlesticks at support. Volume was a little mixed in that there wasn’t across-the-board accumulation, but we will take what we can.
The () closed with a ‘dragonfly’ doji at its 200-day MA on higher volume accumulation. It was the second such test in a couple of weeks, which increased the probability of an undercut of the moving average.
There is still good support at $179 should this happen, but I wouldn’t be counting on this should the break happen. Technicals are net bearish, and Friday’s action did little to improve that.
IWM Daily Chart
The came back to tag former resistance turned support with a more neutral ‘spinning top’ candlestick. The only technical improvement was a cross in +DI/-DI and the continued relative outperformance against the .
COMPQ Daily Chart
The S&P 500 finished with a bullish ‘hammer,’ but the lack of clear price support or oversold momentum indicators weakens the strength of the candlestick. I suspect this index will hold to scrappy action over the coming weeks, but with a 4,335 swing low, there is a measurable risk to work off for anyone looking at long positions.
SPX Daily Chart
As we enter the last week of summer, I would not be looking for any major swings in the market until after Labor Day. However, in August, we have seen a relatively orderly decline, particularly when it looked like losses would accelerate a couple of weeks ago.
I would be cautiously optimistic about an end-of-year rally (despite mid-level breadth metrics), but we will let market action be our lead. As it stands, as an investor, we are in a classic ‘hold’ situation.
