Risk spotlight swings to earnings avalanche

4 weeks ago

2 minutes read

2024.10.29 01:55

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

Earnings are very much front and centre on Tuesday, particularly with markets mostly treading water as a huge week of event risk gets underway.

Five of the megacap tech stocks dubbed the “Magnificent 7” – responsible for powering Wall Street to record peaks this year – report financial results over the next three days, starting later today with Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:). Meta (NASDAQ:) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:) follow on Wednesday, with Amazon (NASDAQ:) and Apple (NASDAQ:) a day later.

Tesla (NASDAQ:) set the tone last week with bold sales forecasts that sent the stock surging 22% for its biggest rally in a decade. Analysts, however, are wary of Elon Musk’s tendency to overpromise.

AI poster child Nvidia (NASDAQ:), which has been vying with Apple for the mantle of most valuable company in recent days, doesn’t report results until much later in November.

On that theme though, chipmaker results over coming days will give a feel for how brightly the AI frenzy continues to burn. AMD (NASDAQ:) reports today, and Intel (NASDAQ:) follows on Thursday.

In Europe, banks hold the spotlight, with HSBC announcing an additional $3 billion share buyback earlier today, along with an estimate-topping 10% profit boost. The lender made headlines last week with a sweeping restructuring and a streamlined executive committee.

Santander (BME:) also reports Tuesday, except for its UK arm, which postponed results while it assesses the impact of a court ruling on motor finance commissions. UBS is on Wednesday.

While the bank sector is healthier than at any point since the global financial crisis, investors want reassurance they can trust longer-term earnings with the European Central Bank leading its major global peers in cutting rates.

By contrast, the Federal Reserve can take its time easing policy after a raft of robust economic data, particularly in employment.

The jobs market has become the Fed’s focus, so it’s hardly surprising that the dollar and Treasury yields would pause for breath near three-month peaks ahead of today’s JOLTS job openings data, a measure favoured by the central bank.

Friday brings the all-important monthly payrolls figures, setting the stage for the policy decision on Nov. 7. No hints will be coming from Fed officials who are already in the blackout period.

The U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 looms as the most momentous risk event for markets globally this year.

Opinion polls are too close to call, but the momentum in markets and on some betting platforms is increasingly for a Republican sweep.

The race has created a lot of uncertainty for businesses, as reflected in one factory survey.

“Our own election outcome cannot be known soon enough,” reads one anecdote from the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing report, out overnight. “We have prospective deals of significance on hold pending who takes office.”

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

-HSBC, Santander earnings in Europe