Economic news

Recession Not Inevitable as Inflation Seen Slowing, Yardeni Says

2022.06.21 16:45

Recession Not Inevitable as Inflation Seen Slowing, Yardeni Says
© Bloomberg. Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research Inc., listens during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. 31, 2017. Yardeni discussed U.S. economic growth and tax reform. Photographer: Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Markets veteran Edward Yardeni is among the more positive strategists in the debate over when a US recession will hit and how long it may last.

“This is probably the most anticipated recession of all times, which in my mind makes it either less likely, or if it does occur, it’s going to be a fairly short and shallow recession,” the chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research Inc. told Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance on Tuesday. “I don’t think recession is yet inevitable. I’ve got a 45% subjective probability of a recession happening over the next 18 months.” 

Yardeni has been raising those odds as the Federal Reserve increases rates to stem 8.6% headline inflation. But he doesn’t expect a repeat of the approach the central bank took in the early 1980s, the last time prices were rising that fast.

“I don’t see a Paul Volcker out there,” he said, referring to chairman of the Fed at that time.

“Back in the late ‘70s, early ‘80s, Paul Volcker said, ‘I got to bring inflation down,’” Yardeni said. “The only way that’s going to happen is if I let interest rates go up to whatever level it takes to bring inflation down.” Now, central banks “have spent the last couple of years trying to get their labor markets protected from the pandemic. They don’t want to reverse that around,” he added.

Still, there are signs that inflation will slow over the next year, even with sky-high gasoline costs. While retailers are stuck with goods because of a slowing economy and a drop in consumer sentiment, “the good news is they are going to have to clear those inventories by cutting prices, one of the most significant components of inflation over the past year has been consumer durable goods inflation.”

The Fed and its peers “are tightening,” Yardeni said. “The financial markets have tightened even more. Credit conditions are slowing the global economy down. We’re going to see a peak in commodities prices shortly.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Source

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 85,377.88 3.84%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,031.49 6.65%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.49 10.12%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.05%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 616.39 2.57%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 132.86 7.01%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.01%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.730737 5.12%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.174087 4.73%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.230032 0.16%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,029.15 6.50%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 85,188.82 3.83%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.72 2.86%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 14.45 5.50%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.82 0.86%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.289273 7.29%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,436.52 7.08%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.05%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.19442 4.80%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 19.58 5.07%
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) $ 1.16 2.79%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.42 6.71%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000013 2.99%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 92.25 4.14%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.56 3.90%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 341.12 2.40%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 6.86 1.22%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 2,030.55 6.79%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.72 2.06%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.07%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.998087 0.21%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 15.03 11.40%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,157.08 6.83%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 6.95 10.52%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 28.68 1.70%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 207.93 0.26%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.04 0.01%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.57 5.38%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.78 9.18%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.04%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 53.06 4.49%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000007 6.67%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.94 4.04%
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) $ 22.80 5.09%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 18.50 5.88%
tokenize-xchange
Tokenize Xchange (TKX) $ 34.42 4.61%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.812149 1.10%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 180.16 6.38%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.861483 4.95%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 85,341.87 3.66%