Forex News

RBA could hike rates in August, supporting AUDUSD- UBS

2024.07.01 21:15

RBA could hike rates in August, supporting AUDUSD- UBS

Investing.com– UBS said it expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to potentially hike interest rates in August following a series of inflation surprises, and that the Australian dollar (AUDUSD) was likely to benefit from such a scenario in the long term.

Australian inflation surprised to the upside for three consecutive months, ramping up expectations that the RBA will have to do more to bring down inflation. CPI rose to 4% in May and was well above the RBA’s 2% to 3% annual target.

UBS expects the RBA to hike its by 25 basis points to 4.6% if second quarter CPI shows an at least 1% quarter-on-quarter increase. 

But beyond the CPI data, UBS argued that strong retail sales and labor data could also spur a hike from the RBA. 

“The most important question is whether the data has surprised the RBA enough to hike again,” UBS analysts wrote in a note. They also forecast a delay in the RBA’s plans to cut rates, to April 2025 from February 2025. 

To this end, UBS forecast a positive long-term trend for the Australian dollar, specifically the pair. UBS expects the pair to reach $0.68 by December, and to hit $0.70 by June 2025. 

But they warned that the currency still faced some downside risks around $0.66, its current level. They also recommended staying long on the AUD over the New Zealand dollar, and targeted at NZ$1.15 over the next 12 months. 



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 102,997.60 0.26%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,355.48 7.33%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.01%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.36 2.38%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 673.76 7.64%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 172.64 5.91%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.01%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.207059 5.99%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.78475 3.11%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.26305 2.48%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,346.93 7.21%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 3.97 0.70%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 102,982.59 0.41%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 16.12 2.26%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,822.67 7.00%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 23.38 5.36%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.298275 2.55%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000015 6.45%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.203778 4.90%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 24.82 7.63%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.31 3.57%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 414.63 0.55%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 8.74 0.94%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 106.00 12.56%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.01%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.90 10.28%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 2,351.16 7.39%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 317.46 6.86%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,506.47 7.03%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000013 14.11%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.50 0.28%
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) $ 0.733491 9.34%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.9984 0.21%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 102,957.59 0.24%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.10%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 30.27 0.17%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 6.54 8.35%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 436.20 3.37%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.93 7.29%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.64 2.16%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.01%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 55.31 4.66%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 212.75 3.76%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.02 4.95%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.50 5.41%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 19.35 4.84%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.102435 4.85%
blackrock-usd-institutional-digital-liquidity-fund
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00 0.00%
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 14.49 15.03%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.05 0.02%