Rate cuts come thick and fast in Europe and Canada as Trump tariffs loom
2024.12.12 10:19
By Naomi Rovnick
LONDON (Reuters) – Central banks in the euro area and Switzerland cut rates on Thursday, a day after Canada slashed rates by a hefty 50 bps. Australia, meanwhile, eased its previously dovish tone this week, while Japan remains an outlier.
Here’s where major rate-setters stand and what traders expect next.
1/ SWITZERLAND
The Swiss National Bank, which has been at the forefront of monetary easing, cut rates by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points (bps) to 0.5% on Thursday, the lowest since November 2022 and the bank’s biggest reduction in almost a decade.
Swiss annual inflation was most recently reported at just 0.7% and the SNB, which is alert to the safe-haven Swiss franc strengthening beyond levels domestic exporters can bear, said it could reduce borrowing costs again next year.
2/ CANADA
The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 bps to 3.25% on Wednesday, marking the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak that it has implemented consecutive half-point cuts.
It indicated further easing would be gradual after annual inflation accelerated to 2%, but with Canada’s weak economy threatened by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, markets placed 70% odds on a 25 bps cut next month.
3/ SWEDEN
Sweden’s economy is shrinking and its central bank, which lowered borrowing costs by 50 bps to 2.75% in November, has guided markets to expect further easing next year.
The Riksbank meets next week and markets see a 25bps cut as more likely than not, with about 90 bps of easing priced in by August.
4/ NEW ZEALAND
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand painted a bleak economic picture in its latest Financial Stability Report, and while it does not meet to set rates again until February, traders see good chances of swift and rapid cuts.
The RBNZ has lowered its cash rate by 75 bps to 4.25% so far this cycle and markets expect it to fall to just over 3% by late 2025.
5/ EURO ZONE
The ECB is firmly in easing mode, cutting its deposit rate by 25 bps to 3% on Thursday in its fourth such move this year and keeping the door open to further reductions.
It also signalled that further cuts are possible by removing a reference to keeping rates “sufficiently restrictive”, economic jargon for a level of borrowing costs that curbs economic growth.
Markets price in roughly 130 bps worth of tightening by end-2025.
6/ UNITED STATES
The Federal Reserve is moving more cautiously with monetary easing given a robust economy and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts and import tariffs complicate the U.S. inflation outlook.
While the Fed cut its main funds rate by 25bps to a range of 4.5%-4.75% in November and traders expect a further quarter point cut on Dec. 18, U.S. consumers are optimistic about the economy and their earnings prospects, and ready to spend.
7/ BRITAIN
The Bank of England is also holding back from rapid easing, having cut rates in November for only the second time since 2020. Money markets imply a 90% probability the BoE will hold steady at its Dec. 19 meeting.
Traders see the UK base rate falling from 4.75% currently to about 3.9% by end-2025, as higher government spending under the new Labour leadership boosts growth and keeps inflation running above the BoE’s 2% target.
8/ NORWAY
Norway’s central bank has yet to start easing, having held its policy rate at a 16-year high of 4.5% in November and guided markets not to expect a cut at its Dec. 19 meeting.
A robust economy helped push annual core inflation up to 3% in November in an unwelcome move away from the Norges Bank’s 2% target. Markets currently price a rate cut by March.
9/ AUSTRALIA
The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at a 12-year high of 4.35% on Tuesday but softened its tone on inflation, raising the market-implied probability of a quarter-point cut in February to more than 50%.
The RBA, which has not changed borrowing costs for more than a year, has taken note of a surprise economic growth slowdown as high rates deterred households from spending despite a recent round of tax cuts.
10/ JAPAN
Rising inflation prompted longtime outlier the Bank of Japan to nudge borrowing costs up to 0.25% in July in a move that wreaked havoc on global trades that were underpinned by its ultra-loose monetary policies, generating a brief market rout.
The BOJ has held rates since and is expected to do so again next week following political uncertainty after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in October elections, with a 25 bps hike seen as more likely than not in January.
