Railcar shortages are slowing auto deliveries

A recent report from the Detroit Free Press highlighted the challenges faced by automobile manufacturers in delivering new vehicles, attributing the constraints to difficulties in sourcing rail cars. According to the article, by the end of May, approximately 70,000 new vehicles were awaiting shipment from production facilities across the industry. Additionally, due to the widespread challenges, the stall in production resulted in the loss of at least 50,000 units.

The article describes the issue specifically as a shortage of specialized rail cars used to transport complete vehicles. These rail cars are shared among the major railroads in North America and are scheduled for use well in advance. However, due to a more rapid recovery in production volume for light vehicles in North America than initially anticipated, the availability of these rail cars has become limited.

“We believe this warrants flagging as a potential risk into 2Q for our coverage OEMs in the event that timing of shipments creates a large set of vehicles waiting to be delivered.” writes Barclays analysts.

They noted that last year both Ford (NYSE:) and General Motors (NYSE:) issued press releases guiding down the financial result due to an excess of vehicles in partially complete inventory. However, the current sourcing issue differs as these vehicles are completed rather than partially built.

Incidentally, depending on the timelines for resolution the analysts estimate the issue could continue into 2H23, challenging incremental volume growth, which has shown steady recovery through May.