Pro Research: Wall Street eyes Instacart’s market trajectory

In the rapidly evolving online grocery sector, Instacart (NASDAQ:), operating under the ticker EXCHANGE:CART, has garnered significant attention from Wall Street analysts. These industry experts have been closely monitoring the company’s performance, market trends, and potential impacts of external factors to provide a comprehensive outlook for potential investors.

Company Overview

Instacart has positioned itself as a digital-first leader in the online grocery delivery and pickup service, connecting customers with a variety of retailers. With a focus on deep integration with merchants, optimized delivery logistics, and a mature advertising product, the company has established a significant presence in the United States and Canada. Instacart’s platform supports both grocery and non-grocery items and has been recognized for its early leadership in the massive grocery Total Addressable Market (TAM).

Market Performance and Strategy

Analysts have noted that Instacart’s Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and revenue have consistently beaten consensus estimates, with EBITDA margins showing significant year-over-year improvements. This reflects the company’s disciplined cost management and profitability enhancements. Instacart’s advertising take rates have grown year-over-year, benefiting from robust consumer packaged goods (CPG) ad spending and the launch of new ad formats in the second half of 2022.

The company’s share buyback program, valued at $500 million, signals confidence in its financial health and cash generation capabilities. With $2.2 billion in cash on hand, Instacart is poised for continued GTV growth into 2024, with the potential for acceleration beyond current levels.

Competitive Landscape

Instacart is navigating a competitive landscape with pressures from companies like DoorDash (NASDAQ:) and Uber (NYSE:). Analysts have highlighted the importance of tangible re-acceleration in top-line growth to become more bullish on the company. Long-term growth opportunities include deepening retailer relationships and investing in audience growth.

Despite the competitive environment, Instacart’s leadership position in digital grocery is reinforced by accelerating GTV and order growth, along with expanding take rates. The company’s business model is considered defensible, and consistent results are expected to contribute to share price appreciation.

Regulatory and Macro Environment

The regulatory scrutiny on gig worker status and changes in consumer behavior post-COVID are among the risks that Instacart faces. The company must also navigate the intense competition within the Marketplace and Retail Media markets and the potential failure to scale the advertising business or expand internationally.

Financial Outlook

Instacart’s financial performance has been robust, with Q3 2023 earnings surpassing expectations. The company reported a total GTV of $7.49 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $163 million for the quarter. Revenue was driven by transaction revenue and advertising & other revenue, with guidance for Q4 2023 indicating GTV growth of +5-6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA between $165-175 million.

Wolfe Research maintains an Outperform rating on Instacart (CART) with a raised price target of $39, up from the previous $35. The firm’s analysis suggests multiple paths for GTV acceleration in FY24, with a base case of +7% GTV growth. Adjusted EBITDA projections for FY24 are estimated at $730 million, with further growth to $903 million in FY25. The company’s market capitalization now stands at approximately $11.495 billion, with an enterprise value of $9.153 billion, and financial ratios include a Price to Earnings of 55x, EV/EBITDA of 12.5x, and a Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield of 21.7%.

Bear Case

Is Instacart’s market share at risk?

With increasing competition in the online grocery space, Instacart faces the challenge of maintaining its market share. The company’s top-line growth is slower compared to peers like and Uber, which are gaining share in the grocery segment. Competitive market uncertainty remains a concern, with the potential for market share losses and macroeconomic factors affecting growth. Despite these challenges, Instacart’s valuation appears attractive, and the company is well-positioned to capture incremental share due to its marketplace leadership and strong margin profile.

Can Instacart sustain its profitability amid competition?

Instacart’s profitability has exceeded expectations, with EBITDA well ahead of consensus. However, questions arise if more investment in growth should be made given the intensifying competition. The company aims to be GAAP profitable next year, but it must balance the need for profitability with the necessity to invest in growth to fend off competitors.

Bull Case

Will Instacart’s advertising business drive future growth?

Instacart’s advertising revenue grew by 19% year-over-year, with increased penetration into GTV. The company has expanded its advertising business through partnerships and increased ad spending, which is expected to drive future growth. With a unique and differentiated advertising business model, Instacart has a significant lead in the large basket grocery delivery market.

Can Instacart leverage its first-mover advantage?

Instacart’s first-mover advantage and proven profitability in the online grocery space are attractive valuation points. The company’s strong Q3 performance and improved margin outlook, combined with the potential for GTV acceleration in early 2024, position Instacart for sustained top-line growth.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths:

• Leadership position in online grocery delivery.
• Strong advertising revenue stream.
• Significant cash reserves and share buyback program.

Weaknesses:

• Slower top-line growth compared to competitors.
• High stock-based compensation post-IPO.
• Risks associated with gig worker regulatory scrutiny.

Opportunities:

• Potential acceleration of GTV growth as SNAP benefit headwinds ease.
• Expansion of advertising business and international reach.
• Deepening retailer relationships and audience growth investments.

Threats:

• Intense competition from companies like DoorDash and Uber.
• Market share loss and macroeconomic factors affecting growth.
• Consumer behavior changes post-COVID.

Analysts Targets

– JMP Securities: Market Outperform with a price target of $35 (November 14, 2023).

– Barclays: Overweight with a price target of $40 (November 9, 2023).

– Bernstein: Market-Perform with a price target of $30 (November 9, 2023).

– Wolfe Research: Outperform with a raised price target of $39 (March 5, 2024).

– Stifel: Buy with a price target of $48 (November 9, 2023).

– J.P. Morgan: Overweight with a price target of $33 (November 9, 2023).

– BofA Global Research: Neutral with a price target of $31 (November 9, 2023).

– Baird: Outperform with a price target of $31 (January 18, 2024).

– Gordon Haskett: Hold with a revised price target of $38, up from the previous $34 (April 9, 2024).

– Piper Sandler & Co.: Overweight with an increased price target of $45.00 from $36.00 (March 15, 2024).

The timeframe used for this analysis spans from January to November 2023.

InvestingPro Insights

Instacart, known on the stock market as EXCHANGE:CART, has become a focal point for investors seeking opportunities in the burgeoning online grocery sector. With a market capitalization of approximately $9.76 billion, the company’s financial health and growth prospects are under constant scrutiny. Instacart’s recent performance has demonstrated some notable highlights, as evidenced by the data and insights from InvestingPro.

One of the key strengths of Instacart is its impressive gross profit margin, which stands at 74.88% for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023. This figure not only underscores the company’s ability to maintain a substantial markup on its sales but also suggests operational efficiency in managing the costs of goods sold. Moreover, Instacart’s revenue growth remains robust, with an increase of 19.25% during the same period, indicating a strong demand for its services and potential for future expansion.

InvestingPro Tips highlight several aspects that could influence investor sentiment. Instacart’s financial resilience is reflected in its liquidity position, where its liquid assets surpass short-term obligations, providing a cushion against market volatility. Additionally, the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, presenting a favorable financial structure that could attract cautious investors. Instacart’s net income is expected to grow this year, offering a positive outlook for its profitability trajectory. Notably, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, which could mark a turning point in its financial narrative.

While Instacart has not been profitable over the last twelve months, the company’s stock has experienced a strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 53.3%. This performance suggests growing investor confidence in Instacart’s business model and future prospects. It is important to note that Instacart does not pay a dividend to shareholders, which might be a consideration for income-focused investors.

For those interested in further analysis and additional insights, InvestingPro offers a comprehensive range of tips for Instacart, with 9 additional tips listed on their platform. These tips provide a deeper dive into the company’s financial health, market position, and potential growth pathways, which can be found at https://www.investing.com/pro/CART.

With the next earnings date scheduled for May 8, 2024, investors and analysts will be keeping a close eye on Instacart’s performance metrics and strategic initiatives to gauge the company’s trajectory in the competitive online grocery market.

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