Positioning suggests ‘limited’ investor conviction behind recent rally – Citi

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Citi strategists believe the recent rally in equities was fueled by extremely bearish positioning. While some analysts suggested that the market bottom is in, Citi says that weak positioning flows recorded last week show “only limited investor conviction behind the recent rally.”

Overall, the futures positioning in the S&P 500 “remains neutral” while is still bearish. The recent relief rally in the market means the legacy short positions are in loss, which points towards a continued risk of a short squeeze, the strategists added.

“The recent rally has increased the losses on and Nasdaq shorts. All short positions in both markets are currently in loss, with average short losses greater for the S&P (-6.5%), increasing the potential risk of a squeeze,” they said in a note.

As far as European equities are concerned, the strategists note little changed positioning relative to the prior week.

On China, they highlighted “the largest change in net futures positioning with positive flows in both futures indices and net notional turning positive across both markets.”

The strategists also discussed the recent value outperformance, which they don’t expect to continue going into 2023.

“Rolling recessions and continuing negative sentiment on inflation will create increasing headwinds for the Value vs Growth trade so we recommend a general defensive style tilt.”

The S&P 500 closed 1.8% lower yesterday.

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