Pivotal Research begins Amazon coverage, sees strong growth with $260 PT

Investing.com — Pivotal Research Group has initiated coverage of Amazon (NASDAQ:) with a “buy” rating, citing the company’s strong organic growth potential and its robust position across several sectors.

In a note dated Friday, analysts at Pivotal flagged Amazon’s broad expansion opportunities, particularly driven by its cloud services division, Amazon Web Services, which they predict will grow from 17% of total revenue in 2024 to over 35% within the next five years.

This substantial growth is expected to be fueled by the increasing adoption of cloud technologies, particularly as artificial intelligence capabilities continue to expand across industries.

Beyond cloud services, Pivotal pointed out that Amazon has vast potential to grow its e-commerce and retail businesses by leveraging its infrastructure to expand into new markets, especially in sectors like grocery and pharmacy. 

The company’s international footprint is also expected to expand, along with improvements in delivery speeds and fulfillment operations. 

Amazon’s advertising business, which is already the third-largest globally, is projected to capture more market share, further diversifying its revenue streams.

Pivotal also noted Amazon’s ability to develop new revenue channels through technological advancements like robotics, AI, and autonomous vehicles. 

Analysts at Pivotal argue that these emerging technologies will not only support operational efficiency but could also lead to margin expansion over the next five years, driving operating margins up from the current 10% to approximately 20% by 2029.

Key to Amazon’s value proposition, as per Pivotal, is its ability to capitalize on scale, efficiency, and higher-margin businesses like AWS and advertising. 

These factors, combined with potential cost reductions through AI and automation, place Amazon in a strong position to continue its dominance in the technology sector.

Despite the bullish outlook, Pivotal also warned of several risks that could affect Amazon’s trajectory. These include regulatory pressures, as the company faces potential antitrust actions, and concerns that Amazon may lag behind competitors in AI development. 

Additionally, the Kuiper satellite project, aimed at providing global internet coverage, poses a financial risk, although it is seen as a long-term bet that could enhance Amazon’s logistics and retail capabilities.

Pivotal values Amazon using a discounted cash flow model, forecasting a 30% annual growth in free cash flow per share, supported by strong growth in AWS and advertising. 

The brokerage has set a year-end 2025 price target of $260 for Amazon’s stock, reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to sustain its market leadership while expanding into new high-growth areas​.