Oil prices up on tighter supply, China PMI in focus

By Katya Golubkova

TOKYO (Reuters) – Global oil prices were up in early trade on Thursday backed by tighter U.S. supply, with a focus on China factory activity due later in the day amid recent weak economic expansion data in the world’s second-biggest economy.

futures contract for October and which expires on Thursday was up 14 cents, or 0.16%, at $86 per barrel and the more active November contract was up 10 cents, or 0.12%, at $85.34 at 0039 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.13%, to $81.74.

Prices are on the rise this week, with U.S. government data showing tighter-than-expected crude supplies and a military coup in Gabon, an OPEC member, raising fears of supply disruptions providing additional support on Wednesday.

Analysts also expect Saudi Arabia to roll over a voluntary oil cut of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month into October, adding to the cuts in place by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia.

The U.S. government has also revised down the gross domestic product increase to 2.1% last quarter, from the 2.4% pace reported last month, and data released on Wednesday showed private payroll growth slowed significantly in August.

The Federal Reserve can end its interest rate hiking cycle if the labour market and economic growth continue to slow at the current gradual pace, the former president of the Boston Fed said on Wednesday.

“Bad news was good, as weaker U.S. economic data lowered expectations of another rate hike,” ANZ Research said in a note. Higher interest rate reduce demand and pressure oil prices down.

China’s factory activity likely contracted for a fifth straight month in August, a Reuters poll showed, as weak demand threatens recovery prospects in the world’s second-largest economy and pressures officials to prop up growth.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is expected to have edged up to 49.4 in August, a marginal improvement on the 49.3 recorded in July, but that will still mark the fifth month in a row below the key 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction.

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