Oil prices tick higher as dollar tumbles on soft CPI data

Investing.com– Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Thursday, hovering near three-month highs as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data helped ease some anxiety over rising interest rates. 

But gains were somewhat limited as traders also digested recent data showing an unexpected build in over the past week, while other indicators showed that gasoline demand was weakening despite the travel-heavy summer season.

Still, oil prices cleared key bullish levels this week as the soft inflation data pulled the to 15-month lows, benefiting most commodities priced in the greenback. The soft inflation reading, coupled with recent data indicating some cooling in the labor market, spurred bets that the Federal Reserve will need to adopt a less hawkish stance this year.

rose 0.1% to $80.34 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.2% to $75.92 a barrel by 22:02 ET (02:02 GMT). Both contracts rallied nearly $3 each over the past two sessions, and were trading close to three-month highs.

The clearing of the $80 a barrel level for crude, and the $75 a barrel level for WTI, was also seen as a bullish signal for markets.

Tighter physical markets, as the effects of recent production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia began to be felt, also put a floor under oil prices, as did expectations of more stimulus measures in China, the world’s largest oil importer. 

U.S. CPI inflation drops, but rate hikes to continue 

Despite the softer (CPI) reading, markets are largely pricing in an at least 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed during an end-July meeting. 

While inflation eased in June, it still remained well above the Fed’s 2% annual target range. inflation also remained stubbornly high. As such, the central bank is expected to continue raising rates in the near-term, with a slew of Fed officials warning as much this week.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday that the bank would need to keep raising rates in order to prevent sticky inflation from becoming entrenched, a scenario that could herald more pressure on the U.S. economy.

U.S. inventories see biggest build in a month, fuel demand weakens 

inventories grew 5.95 million barrels in the week to July 7, much more than forecasts for a build of 0.48 million barrels. The reading was largely driven by sluggish oil exports from the country over the past week.

But more troubling was a weekly indicator of petroleum products supplied to markets, which sank to 18.7 million barrels a day- its lowest level since early-January. Analysts noted that this presented a weak picture of U.S. gasoline demand, which is a key driver of overall crude consumption in the country.

The reading also factored into fears that cooling U.S. economic activity will stymie fuel demand this year. 

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