NZD/USD Yawns as Business Confidence Improves

08/31/2023

1 minute read

2023.08.31 06:33

MarketPulse

New Zealand business confidence rises
ADP Employment Change falls to 177,000

is almost flat on Thursday, trading at 0.5958 in Europe.

New Zealand Business Confidence improves again

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index accelerated for a fourth straight month in August. The index improved to -3.7, up from -13.1 in July. Business Confidence has been in negative territory for 26 consecutive months, but the August print was the highest since June 2021. The consensus estimate stood at -1.9 and the New Zealand dollar didn’t react. If the upswing continues, we should see a positive reading in the next month or two, which would be a milestone and likely give a boost to the New Zealand dollar.

The business confidence report noted that inflation expectations dipped very slightly, from 5.14% to 5.06%. This is clearly incompatible with a 2% inflation target but the key question is whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will pause for a third straight time in October, in the hope that the benchmark rate of 5.50% will further cool the economy and push inflation lower.

The RBNZ doesn’t meet until October 4th, with only one tier-1 event prior to the meeting, which is GDP on September 20th. The central bank will also be keeping a close eye on events in China, where the economy has been deteriorating. On Thursday, China’s Manufacturing PMI rose in July to 49.7, up from 49.3 in June, but this marked a fifth straight contraction.

In the US, the markets await the non-farm payrolls release on Friday. The ADP employment report fell sharply to 177,000, down from an upwardly revised 371,000 and shy of the estimate of 195,000. The ADP release isn’t a reliable precursor to non-farm payrolls but still attracts attention as investors hunt for clues ahead of the non-farm payrolls release. The markets are expecting non-farm payrolls to fall to 170,000 in August, compared to 187,000 in July.

NZD/USD 4-Hour Chart