‘No landing’ scenario could stoke fears of economy overheating: UBS

Investing.com — n a note Monday, UBS analysts cautioned that the U.S. economy may continue running hotter than expected, raising concerns about overheating.

The strong September jobs report, with 254,000 payroll gains—well above expectations—and revisions that added 72,000 jobs for the prior two months, suggests the economy is performing better than many anticipated.

“Labor market data defying expectations not only boosted confidence in the soft landing by quelling fears that it’s at risk of cracking,” said UBS.

The bank notes that economic data, which had been trending negatively since the spring, is now consistently surprising to the upside. Meanwhile, consumer spending has also picked up, signaling further economic strength.

UBS highlighted the possibility of a “no landing” scenario, where the economy avoids a slowdown altogether and continues to grow at an elevated pace.

The bank noted that U.S. nominal GDP grew by 5% in the first half of 2024 and could continue at this level or higher. While this growth might seem “hot” compared to the slower pace of the 2010s, UBS suggested it could become the new norm.

However, UBS warned that sustained high growth could stoke fears of inflation re-accelerating, particularly in 2025. Although there are no current signs of inflation picking up, the potential risks remain.

They add that the strong labor data doesn’t appear to have altered the Federal Reserve’s plans for two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2024.

UBS believes the Fed will maintain this course, but beyond 2024, the rate path is more uncertain. If the economy continues to grow at 5%, the Fed may be less aggressive in cutting rates further.

The bank concluded that while investors welcomed the hot data, prolonged economic strength could raise concerns of overheating, which could impact rate cut expectations.