‘Most bullish’ weekly close — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
2024.10.28 06:27
Bitcoin (BTC) launches into the end of “Uptober” with a bullish weekly close and traders betting on fresh BTC price upside.
- Analysis predicts a “very volatile” monthly close for BTC/USD, with the CME futures gap acting as a possible downside target around $67,000.
- An onslaught of US macro data precedes the crunch election and Fed rate meeting next week.
- Bitcoin is finally breaking loose from a downward-sloping channel in place practically since March’s all-time highs after a “most bullish” weekly close.
- US Bitcoin ownership is on the up — a key ingredient in any long-term bull market.
- Whales remain committed to increasing exposure while retail interest stays unimpressive — but this has historically benefitted BTC price strength, data shows.
Golden cross sets bullish tone for BTC price
Bitcoin closed out the week just below $68,000, and while not its highest in “Uptober,” bulls are stopping at nothing as the monthly close nears.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows a healthy BTC price rebound continuing into the week’s first Asia trading session.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
As a result, a “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market offers insight into potential retracement levels should short-term momentum change.
“Think we’re going to get a very volatile next week and end of the month,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in part of a recent post on X while confirming the CME gap at $67,000.
“November itself is bound to make for a lot of action as well.”
BTC/USDT chart with CME futures levels. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/
With little more than a week to go until the US Presidential Elections, traders are primed for volatility across crypto and risk assets.
On higher timeframes, others note, BTC/USD continues to consolidate below March’s all-time highs of $73,800.
“So long as we consolidate, we will build the volatility necessary to break 70k resistance,” fellow trader Roman told X subscribers.
“Sideways is boring but what follows will begin a new macro uptrend. 70k is the level we must break to leave this 7 month range.”
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Roman/X
Crypto investor and analyst Satoshi Stacker meanwhile eyed a “golden cross” playing out on the daily chart, this involving the rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above its 200-day counterpart.
“The last time this happened (almost exactly a year ago), $BTC more than 2X’d over the following 5 months,” he noted.
A repeat would see BTC/USD reach six figures for the first time in history during Q1 2025.
BTC/USDT perp 1-day chart with 50, 200SMA. Source: Satoshi Stacker/X
US macro data comes thick and fast pre-Election
After two relatively quiet weeks, US macroeconomic data prints are back — and with them, the odds of risk-asset volatility.
Q3 GDP, major tech earnings, nonfarm payrolls (NFP), unemployment numbers and the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, are all due in the coming days.
The timing of the data prints could hardly be more influential — next week holds both the US Presidential Election and the Fed’s next meeting to decide interest rate policy.
Both events are seen as key for risk-asset trajectory, including crypto, and with US equities notching new record levels, the stakes are high.
“A huge week ahead of us kicks of a very busy November,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of its latest X coverage.
Popular trader CrypNuevo described the end of October as “one of the hardest trading weeks of the year.”
Updating X followers on his Bitcoin trading plans, he suggested that downside wicks would be suitable buying opportunities, but that the situation hinged on macro.
“I’ve come up with this projection but take it with a pinch of salt because any surprising earnings or NFP data will invalidate it straight away,” he wrote.
BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
In terms of how the Fed might react to the macro numbers, QCP Capital suggested that it would take a lot for markets to change their minds.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows overwhelming odds of the Nov. 7 meeting outcome being a 0.25% interest rate cut.
“The current odds of a 25 bps Nov rate cut now sits at a comfy 95.1%, with the market anticipating little surprise,” it noted to Telegram channel subscribers.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Bitcoin nails “most bullish” weekly close
At around $67,940 on Bitstamp, BTC/USD just sealed a weekly close which was previously described as the “most bullish” possible outcome.
Last week, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that even a close at $66,300 would be promising, but in the end, the market managed to lock in a level primed to be the starting point for further upside.
The significance of the weekly close becomes apparent when viewed within the context of BTC price behavior since March’s all-time high.
Since then, BTC/USD has acted within a downward-sloping channel that has been infamously difficult to break through definitively. Now, however, that moment appears to have arrived.
“Bitcoin is only hours away from confirming a brand new bullish Weekly Candle Close,” Rekt Capital summarized alongside an illustrative chart of the channel on Oct. 27.
“Bitcoin is on the cusp of confirming a successful post-breakout retest from the Channel (black).”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Others drew similar conclusions, with trading platform TrendSpider declaring “all systems ready for launch” after the close.
“Looks like the breakout from the descending broadening wedge has been perfectly tested,” fellow popular trader Moustache concluded in part of his latest X posts.
“Next target: New ATH.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Moustache/X
US bitcoin ownership stages key rebound
For the first time since the March highs, the amount of bitcoin owned by US entities has started to increase.
Analyzing BTC held by banks, funds and exchanges, onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant drew comparisons to the start of the bull run at the beginning of 2023.
“The percentage of bitcoin held by US entities (exchanges, banks, funds) has started to grow again,” contributor Crypto Sunmoon wrote in one of its Quicktake blog posts on Oct. 28.
“The strong bull run in late 2023 began with an increase in the percentage of bitcoin held by US entities. The sustained sideways movement in the bitcoin price since March of this year began with a decrease in the percentage of bitcoin held by US entities.”
US Bitcoin ownership vs. others 100-day EMA (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart showed the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of US Bitcoin ownership compared to other countries.
Whales consciously stack sats
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on initial signs that retail interest was starting to pick up after a lengthy absence.
Related: Bitcoin analyst: $100K BTC price by February ‘completely within reason’
Mainstream interest, however, as viewed through the lens of Google search data, remains near five-year lows.
The same cannot be said of Bitcoin whales’ approach to the current market.
The mood among larger BTC investors is firmly optimistic, and while that could easily change once the market hits a certain price point, the current trend is one of uninterrupted accumulation.
“As the largest key stakeholders in crypto continue to scoop up more coins from dumping retail traders, this historically leads to bullish outcomes,” research firm Santiment commented in an X post on Oct. 25.
Santiment showed that in the past two weeks, the number of whale entities — wallets with 100 BTC or more — had increased by 1.9%.
At the same time, sub-100 BTC wallet numbers dropped by more than 20,000, or 0.1% of the total.
Bitcoin whale vs. retail wallet data. Source: Santiment/X
Analyzing low retail activity, CryptoQuant drew similar conclusions about the implications for BTC price action.
“On September 21st, daily transfers by retail investors hit $326 million—the lowest since at least 2020,” it told X followers last week.
“Historically, low retail activity often precedes Bitcoin price rallies.”
Bitcoin retail investor demand 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
