Morningstar DBRS cuts estimate for Milton insured losses to $30-60 billion

By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON (Reuters) – Insured losses for Hurricane Milton are likely to range between $30 billion and $60 billion, Morningstar DBRS analyst Marcos Alvarez said on Friday, below the credit ratings agency’s highest estimates before the hurricane hit.

Hurricane Milton cut a destructive path across Florida this week, but the Tampa Bay area appeared to sidestep the storm surge.

Morningstar DBRS had estimated insured losses could reach $100 billion earlier this week.

“The worst-case scenario of a direct hit to Tampa didn’t materialise,” Alvarez, managing director in Morningstar DBRS’ global financial institution ratings division, told Reuters by email.

Alvarez added that a $30-60 billion insured loss “should be manageable for the insurance industry, except for some local Florida carriers that could have material exposure to this market”.

The hurricane threatens to swamp Florida’s troubled property insurance market, potentially pushing prices higher and threatening coverage in a storm-prone region that already has the highest insurance costs in the United States.

Ratings agency Fitch said on Thursday that insured losses for Hurricane Milton were likely to be in the $30-50 billion range, the largest insured loss since Hurricane Ian in 2022.

Insurance broker Aon (NYSE:) on Friday also put insured losses for Milton at “tens of billions of dollars”.