Morning Bid: Welcome to the cutting club, Kiwis
2024.08.14 00:38
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is known for a tendency to surprise, and this time is no different.
On Wednesday, the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%, surprising the majority of economists polled by Reuters. It was its first policy easing since March 2020 and a year earlier than its own projections.
As recently as May it was seriously warning of more hikes, so the abrupt reversal was a head turner. RBNZ chief Adrian Orr explained in a presser that “when the facts change, so do we”.
It is the latest major central bank to ease policy, following policymakers in Europe, Canada and Britain, and could perhaps be a signal for those that are still holding steady in the face of sticky inflation.
Yes, looking at you, the Reserve Bank of Australia who all but ruled out any rate cuts this year.
The RBNZ seems confident inflation in New Zealand, which ran at 3.3% last quarter, will be back in the target band of 1-3% this quarter, and it does not need to wait for the actual Q3 number to act.
In particular, it also projected a cash rate of 4.92% by December, meaning they see room to cut maybe two more times by Christmas. Markets agree, having already fully priced in another easing in October, with some chance of a 50-basis-point move.
The dollar duly slumped 1%, while key two-year swap rates fell 11 basis points to the lowest since mid-2022.
Elsewhere, most Asian stocks are cheering data showing U.S. producer prices rose less than expected, which stirred hopes that consumer price inflation would be benign later in the day.
European futures point to a higher open ahead of inflation figures from the UK, where the annual core rate is seen slowing even as the headline number ticks up. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.2% and gained 0.3%.
Adding to the busy news flow in Asia was that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would step down in September, ending a three-year term marked by rising prices and marred by political scandals.
The yen strengthened slightly and the benchmark gave up gains to be off 0.2%, a modest reaction to political uncertainty.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
— UK inflation data for July
— U.S. CPI data for July
— Euro zone GDP, industrial production data
— Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks
(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
