Morning Bid: Turbulent week ending on a high
2024.08.09 00:52
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu.
No one could have guessed how this turbulent week in the markets would end, but remarkably it’s only taken one weekly U.S. jobless claims report to undo most of the damage after fears of a looming U.S. recession had sent investors into panic.
On Friday, Asia’s share markets rallied across the board, tracking a strong rebound on Wall Street. gained 1.6% and has erased most of Monday’s 13% loss, for a likely weekly drop of just 1.5%.
As it stands now, the yen is set to finish down about 0.5% against the dollar this week, after surging to a seven-month peak on Monday that spurred the unravelling of yen carry trades, a driving force in the recent global market rout.
The carry trade is far from dead, though, with JPMorgan estimating this popular trade had reached perhaps $4 trillion.
Even the much-feared China slowdown story is turning around a bit. Consumer inflation data on Friday showed prices rose by more than expected in July, following trade data on Wednesday that showed a surprising pick-up in import growth. This suggested there is less risk of the world’s second-largest economy sliding into outright deflation.
All of that should make for a stronger open for Europe, with no major economic data releases, earnings announcements or Fed speakers on the agenda for Friday. Both EUROSTOXX 50 futures and added 0.3%. A decent day would help the to reverse its weekly losses and the to build on its gains.
With money matters less of a headache, investors can perhaps turn one eye to the climactic final days of the world’s biggest sporting event, as the Olympic Games in Paris head to their conclusion on Sunday.
Host country France is now ranked fourth in the gold medal tally, after the U.S., China and Australia. And it has good chances at winning in basketball, volleyball and men’s boxing.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
— CFTC commitment of traders positioning data, which will indicate how many yen shorts have come out of the market
— Germany final CPI data
— France ILO unemployment rate for Q2
(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
