Morning Bid: Traders focus on Fed as key Trump picks awaited
2024.11.19 01:15
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Signs are positive for European stocks’ open, with futures pointing up, and equity indices across most of Asia also in the green.
Like Monday, there’s little news to guide market direction, with a reversal of some of the big moves from last week when world stocks suffered their worst week since the start of September again being the main driver of moves.
The U.S. dollar is trading on the back foot again today, extending its retreat from a one-year peak versus major peers from last week. Treasury yields sagged to new lows in Tokyo, pulling away from Friday’s high above 4.5%, a level last seen 5-1/2-months ago.
The outlook for Federal Reserve easing seems to have returned as the market’s main preoccupation, in the absence of highly anticipated announcements of Donald Trump’s picks for the Treasury and trade portfolios.
A run of robust U.S. data combined with expectations of faster inflation under Trump’s higher-tariff, tighter-immigration policies have seen bets for a December rate cut pared to around 58% on CME FedWatch, from greater than 65% odds a week ago.
Despite the relative news vacuum, AI darling Nvidia (NASDAQ:)’s earnings on Wednesday loom large as the event likely to set the tone for equity markets at least for the final half of the week, and possibly into year-end.
There’s little on the data docket in Europe today, which is headlined by final consumer inflation readings for October for the euro zone as a whole. Similarly, the U.S. only has housing figures on tap.
There are plenty of central bank speakers though, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid late in the day.
Ahead of that, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and his peers appear in parliament, where they are likely to be peppered with questions about the implications of the government’s big-spending budget and Trump’s potential trade policies.
ECB policy maker Frank Elderson also gives remarks at a green finance forum in Frankfurt. And in Sweden, Riksbank’s First Deputy Governor Anna Breman takes the podium.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
-BoE officials speak in parliament
-Euro zone final HICP (Oct)
-ECB’s Elderson speaks
-Riksbank’s Breman speaks
-Kansas City Fed’s Schmid speaks
